Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:50:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7938…95cc crypto 77 markets active 70d ago coverage 62d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$40,806 (-15%) realized −$40,806 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate58%45W / 32L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,453per market
Trades / day54.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 62d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$3,625
world 27% −$17,321
crypto 19% +$5,335
finance 9% −$900
economics 9% +$8,473
culture 1% +$2,744
sports 0% +$289
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 -3.3% -12.5% 0% 0% -12.5%
all 77 +6.3% -3.8% 58% 27% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.8% 27% -11.2%
10% -13.0% 26% -19.7%
15% ← realistic here -21.4% 21% -27.5%
20% -29.1% 10% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$3,620) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
28.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$918 vs −$1,495 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$40,806
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses45 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 77
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$3,453
Trades / day54.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 77 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? Apr 20 $622 −$21 -3%
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? Mar 29 $8,883 −$8,883 -100%
Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 29 $2,955 +$5,846 +198%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 29 $3,943 +$9,608 +244%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 06 $5,410 +$2,548 +47%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? Mar 05 $5,037 +$258 +5%
Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch? Mar 02 $3,975 +$927 +23%
Paradex FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 02 $5 $0 +3%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 02 $2,192 −$111 -5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 25? Feb 28 $27 −$27 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 24? Feb 28 $1,532 −$1,532 -100%
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch? Feb 28 $15,661 −$11,301 -72%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $31,540 −$17,680 -56%
Hyperlend FDV above $50M one day after launch? Feb 27 $5,000 +$7 +0%
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 27 $780 +$10 +1%
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? Feb 27 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards Feb 27 $1,780 +$2,744 +154%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Feb 27 $12,750 −$450 -4%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $3,620 −$2,470 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 26? Feb 26 $2,600 +$2,400 +92%
Will ZachXBT release his investigation on February 26? Feb 26 $15,840 +$829 +5%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 26 $2,600 +$200 +8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 26? Feb 26 $1,891 −$749 -40%
Will there be 20 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 26 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Robinhood be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $1,152 −$759 -66%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 24? Feb 25 $3,666 −$51 -1%
Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 24 $1,320 +$80 +6%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 24 $4,920 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $3,118 +$10 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 24 $11,818 +$77 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 24 $7,185 +$7 +0%
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? Feb 23 $2,190 +$256 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 23? Feb 23 $600 −$600 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 23? Feb 23 $12,605 +$1,121 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Feb 23 $1,482 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Feb 23 $1,482 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Feb 23 $1,198 +$287 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Feb 23 $1,485 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Feb 23 $1,485 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Feb 23 $1,485 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Feb 23 $1,482 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Feb 23 $1,485 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Feb 23 $1,482 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Feb 23 $1,485 −$21 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Feb 23 $705 +$767 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Feb 23 $1,482 −$20 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Feb 23 $1,482 −$20 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Feb 23 $1,485 −$22 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Feb 23 $974 +$496 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Feb 23 $1,485 −$23 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? SELL No 72¢ $602 69d
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? BUY No 75¢ $600 114d
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 88¢ $4,505 114d
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? BUY No 75¢ $22 114d
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 44¢ $432 115d
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 44¢ $8 115d
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 69¢ $500 115d
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 76¢ $500 115d
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 77¢ $500 115d
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,035 115d
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 74¢ $500 115d
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,000 115d
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? SELL Yes 100¢ $5,098 115d
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 115d
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,400 115d
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL No 94¢ $1,412 115d
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 115d
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 115d
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 71¢ $950 115d
Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? SELL No 96¢ $963 115d
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 115d
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 115d
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 68¢ $250 115d
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? SELL Yes 100¢ $178 115d
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 75¢ $245 115d
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 75¢ $146 116d
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 75¢ $291 116d
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 75¢ $68 116d
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,000 116d
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records