Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:32:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
79 0x7933…8949 crypto 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 262d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$218 (+1%) realized +$216 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate86%38W / 6L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$659per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$774now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% +$6
other 17% +$58
economics 14% +$73
politics 6% +$79
finance 2% +$1
world 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.5% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 8 +0.2% -9.4% 75% 0% -9.5%
all 44 -0.2% -9.7% 86% 11% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 11% -8.9%
10% -18.4% 2% -17.6%
15% -26.3% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.5% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,120) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$35 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

262d coverage
Net worth$774
Realized+$216
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses38 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)44 / 47
History coverage262d
Avg bet$659
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $307 $307 −$1 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $268 $268 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 97¢ 98¢ $197 $200 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $567 +$8 +2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 03 $780 −$16 -2%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Apr 30 $664 +$5 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April? Apr 29 $99 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 26 $675 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 20 $673 +$2 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,600 by end of March? Apr 07 $763 +$2 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 29 $772 −$1 -0%
Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 07 $770 +$2 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of February? Mar 03 $768 +$2 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? Feb 25 $495 +$1 +0%
Will Phantom launch a token by March 31, 2026? Feb 24 $268 +$4 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Feb 20 $498 −$3 -1%
Will Solana reach $200 in February? Feb 12 $267 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 06 $1,044 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $969 +$76 +8%
Trump out as President by March 31? Jan 06 $773 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 06 $1,269 +$1 +0%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? Jan 04 $1,182 +$75 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 25 $12 $0 +1%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? Dec 24 $1,174 +$8 +1%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Dec 16 $76 +$8 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 14 $979 +$110 +11%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Dec 11 $164 +$29 +18%
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2026? Dec 10 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31? Dec 10 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 26 $186 −$22 -12%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November? Nov 20 $971 +$8 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 16 $969 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 2? Nov 06 $134 −$134 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $3.10 on November 2? Nov 03 $968 +$1 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 01 $964 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Oct 30 $1,143 +$7 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 28 $1,131 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $270 on October 15? Oct 16 $1,130 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,900 and $5,000 on October 14? Oct 15 $1,129 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,700 and $4,800 on October 13? Oct 14 $359 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $5,000 and $5,100 on October 13? Oct 14 $768 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $124,000 on October 12? Oct 12 $1,125 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $250 and $260 on October 11? Oct 12 $1,123 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,900 and $5,000 on October 10? Oct 11 $1,121 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 10? Oct 09 $1,120 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on October Oct 09 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 1? Oct 03 $71 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $307 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $268 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 100¢ $432 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 100¢ $144 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $567 16d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 94¢ $567 16d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 97¢ $197 34d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 98¢ $29 38d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 98¢ $21 38d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 98¢ $24 38d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 98¢ $10 38d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 98¢ $13 38d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 98¢ $43 38d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 98¢ $56 38d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 97¢ $780 43d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $352 50d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $317 50d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April? SELL No 100¢ $100 51d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $664 52d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? SELL No 100¢ $676 54d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $675 56d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $675 60d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April? BUY No 99¢ $99 73d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $673 73d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,600 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $309 81d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,600 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $439 81d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,600 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $2 81d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,600 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $3 81d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,600 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $1 81d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,600 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $2 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $774.12 · official $774.12 (match) · 152 history records