Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:56:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7930…45e4 other 257 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 246L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$24
14 days−$29
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$44
sports 25% −$21
politics 7% −$7
economics 5% −$7
culture 5% −$6
crypto 4% −$3
world 3% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 184 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 257 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)257 / 257
History coverage134d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 257 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $744 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $295 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $198 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $461 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $286 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $724 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $534 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $432 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $432 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $187 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $383 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $287 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $573 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $241 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $191 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $462 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $112 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $398 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $62 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $332 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $391 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $591 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $237 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $221 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $832 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $381 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $156 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $210 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $287 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $489 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $361 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $281 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $361 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $226 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 03 $565 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $768 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $454 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 01 $382 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $269 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 39m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 1h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $58 4h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $59 5h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 16h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 18h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $59 19h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $59 20h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $59 23h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $59 25h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $59 29h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $59 30h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 32h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 34h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $59 38h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $59 39h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $59 44h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 45h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $59 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $59 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $60 3d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $60 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1385 history records