Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:45:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7930…ab9e other 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%14W / 150L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 24% −$2
sports 22% −$3
other 20% −$3
economics 8% $0
culture 8% −$1
crypto 7% $0
world 6% −$1
tech 4% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 4 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 164 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses14 / 150
Open positions0
Markets (closed)164 / 164
History coverage157d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 164 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $108 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $48 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 23 $45 $0 -1%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 15 $36 $0 -1%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 02 $214 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 28 $145 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 28 $37 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 28 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 26 $58 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Feb 26 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 26 $93 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 26 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 26 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 24 $95 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 24 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 24 $100 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 24 $164 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 24 $48 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 24 $193 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 24 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 24 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 24 $45 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 22 $128 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 22 $95 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 22 $47 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 22 $69 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? Feb 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $58 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $138 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 22 $64 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 22 $91 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $102 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 22 $133 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will Kansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Feb 18 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 18 $43 $0 -0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 18 $58 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 18 $44 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 18 $145 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 18 $100 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 18 $70 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 18 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 18 $93 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 18 $146 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $38 1h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $38 6h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $48 11d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $48 11d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? SELL No 95¢ $45 25d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 96¢ $45 25d
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 32d
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $36 33d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $42 107d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 109d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1 109d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 96¢ $41 109d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $37 109d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 109d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $37 109d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $37 109d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $48 111d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 94¢ $48 111d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $48 111d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 96¢ $48 111d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $44 111d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $45 111d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 98¢ $48 111d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 98¢ $48 111d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $41 111d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $41 111d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $45 111d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $45 111d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $48 111d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $48 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 583 history records