Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:29:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
79 0x792d…7363 sports 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$18 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate53%31W / 27L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$270est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$76
other 1% −$100
crypto 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 54 +20.3% +8.8% 56% 26% -10.6%
≤90d 58 +15.4% +4.4% 53% 24% -10.8%
all 58 +15.4% +4.4% 53% 24% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.4% 24% -10.8%
10% -5.6% 17% -19.4%
15% -14.7% 12% -27.2%
20% -23.0% 12% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +40% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$41 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses31 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$270
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage54d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $96 $95 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 May 28 $77 −$68 -88%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik May 28 $405 −$199 -49%
Chisinau: Andrej Nedic vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri May 26 $112 +$4 +3%
Set Handicap: Zheng (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) May 25 $10 +$9 +93%
Kokkinakis vs. Atmane: Match O/U 38.5 May 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $12 +$18 +144%
Chisinau: Marko Topo vs Lorenzo Giustino May 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Bengaluru 3: Ilya Ivashka vs Petr Bar Biryukov May 24 $102 −$17 -16%
Geneva Open: Mariano Navone vs Learner Tien May 23 $275 −$10 -4%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 104.5 May 23 $20 +$21 +106%
Cervia: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Petr Nesterov May 21 $102 +$3 +2%
Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud May 21 $51 $0 -0%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Thomas Faurel May 21 $121 −$27 -22%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Camila Osorio vs Panna Udvardy May 21 $174 +$16 +9%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Marie Bouzkova vs Ann Li May 21 $529 −$77 -15%
Cervia: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Tommaso Compagnucci May 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Istanbul: Andrej Nedic vs Mert Alkaya May 21 $407 −$81 -20%
Istanbul: Pol Martin Tiffon vs Thiago Monteiro May 21 $365 +$29 +8%
Set Handicap: Neumayer (-1.5) vs Canas (+1.5) May 21 $2 +$2 +119%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs David Goffin May 21 $606 +$185 +31%
Geneva Open: Edas Butvilas vs Alexander Bublik May 20 $63 +$2 +3%
Geneva Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Learner Tien May 20 $60 +$14 +23%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Clara Tauson vs Jaqueline Cristian May 20 $152 +$7 +4%
Bengaluru 3: Hamish Stewart vs Kriish Tyagi May 20 $211 +$16 +8%
Bengaluru 3: Alex Hernandez vs Naoya Honda May 20 $8 −$6 -68%
Tiffon vs. Monteiro: Match O/U 22.5 May 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Bengaluru 3: Sasikumar Mukund vs Taiyo Yamanaka May 20 $153 −$51 -34%
Bengaluru 3: Dominik Palan vs Alastair Gray May 20 $128 −$81 -63%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Gilles Arnau May 20 $258 +$25 +10%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $102 +$112 +110%
Geneva Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Casper Ruud May 19 $645 +$96 +15%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Virtus Bologna vs. Aquila Basket Trento May 19 $101 −$93 -92%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry May 19 $591 +$23 +4%
Cervia: Moise Kouame vs Jacopo Vasami May 19 $224 +$4 +2%
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov May 19 $708 +$45 +6%
Hamburg European Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Joao Fonseca May 19 $210 −$7 -3%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Karolina Pliskova May 19 $221 +$11 +5%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova May 19 $223 +$38 +17%
Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Arthur Gea May 19 $36 +$1 +3%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Diane Parry vs Emma Raducanu May 19 $649 +$39 +6%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Colton Smith vs Alvaro Guillen Meza May 19 $47 −$18 -39%
Bengaluru 3: Maximus Jones vs Sasikumar Mukund May 19 $132 +$29 +22%
Bengaluru 3: Dominik Palan vs Kokoro Isomura May 19 $102 +$27 +26%
Bengaluru 3: Karan Singh vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong May 19 $491 +$23 +5%
Bengaluru 3: Digvijaypratap Singh vs Leo Vithoontien May 19 $29 +$1 +5%
Bengaluru 3: Aradhya Kshitij vs Alastair Gray May 19 $5 −$4 -86%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $406 −$20 -5%
Hamburg European Open: Marcos Giron vs Ben Shelton May 18 $101 +$72 +72%
World Championships: Sweden vs. Czechia May 18 $102 +$17 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5 BUY Over 52¢ $97 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 SELL Over $9 19d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 40¢ $77 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik BUY Alex de Minaur 76¢ $203 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik SELL Alex de Minaur 75¢ $203 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik BUY Alex de Minaur 74¢ $202 20d
Chisinau: Andrej Nedic vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri SELL Genaro Alberto Olivieri 34¢ $116 22d
Kokkinakis vs. Atmane: Match O/U 38.5 BUY Under 52¢ $10 23d
Set Handicap: Zheng (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) BUY Chwalinska 51¢ $10 23d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 41¢ $12 23d
Chisinau: Marko Topo vs Lorenzo Giustino BUY Marko Topo 50¢ $3 23d
Chisinau: Andrej Nedic vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri BUY Genaro Alberto Olivieri 32¢ $112 23d
Geneva Open: Mariano Navone vs Learner Tien SELL Learner Tien 35¢ $265 24d
Geneva Open: Mariano Navone vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 23¢ $72 24d
Geneva Open: Mariano Navone vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 38¢ $102 24d
Geneva Open: Mariano Navone vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 49¢ $102 24d
Bengaluru 3: Ilya Ivashka vs Petr Bar Biryukov SELL Petr Bar Biryukov 30¢ $73 25d
Bengaluru 3: Ilya Ivashka vs Petr Bar Biryukov BUY Petr Bar Biryukov 39¢ $102 25d
Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud SELL Alexei Popyrin 25¢ $51 26d
Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud BUY Alexei Popyrin 24¢ $51 26d
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Thomas Faurel SELL Thomas Faurel 62¢ $20 26d
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Thomas Faurel SELL Thomas Faurel 62¢ $6 26d
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Thomas Faurel BUY Thomas Faurel 49¢ $20 26d
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Thomas Faurel SELL Dalibor Svrcina 54¢ $69 26d
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Thomas Faurel BUY Dalibor Svrcina 77¢ $101 26d
Cervia: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Petr Nesterov SELL Buvaysar Gadamauri 45¢ $103 26d
Cervia: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Petr Nesterov BUY Buvaysar Gadamauri 43¢ $102 26d
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Camila Osorio vs Panna Udvardy SELL Panna Udvardy 83¢ $3 26d
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Camila Osorio vs Panna Udvardy SELL Panna Udvardy 80¢ $16 26d
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Camila Osorio vs Panna Udvardy SELL Panna Udvardy 77¢ $26 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.08 · official $95.08 (match) · 317 history records