Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:47:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x792c…94f1 crypto 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$40 (-1%) realized +$244 · open −$284
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%22W / 28L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$46
14 days+$134
30 days+$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% +$126
economics 22% +$20
other 14% +$62
finance 11% −$296
world 6% +$50
culture 5% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +34.0% +21.2% 67% 67% +34.7%
≤30d 16 -16.3% -24.2% 44% 44% +14.8%
≤90d 27 -12.4% -20.8% 48% 44% +1.6%
all 50 -9.9% -18.5% 44% 40% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 40% +0.1%
10% -26.3% 32% -9.5%
15% -33.4% 24% -18.2%
20% -39.9% 18% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$15 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized+$244
Unrealized−$284
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses22 / 28
Open positions9
Markets (closed)50 / 59
History coverage102d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $48 $42 −$6 (-13%)
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 0 Sweden? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $26 $17 −$10 (-37%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 15¢ 1¢ $45 $2 −$43 (-96%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $200 $2 −$198 (-99%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $24 $1 −$23 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $72 +$17 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $18 +$32 +178%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $232 +$89 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 04 $14 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 04 $28 +$58 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 04 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 04 $83 +$37 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 04 $14 −$13 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $19 −$19 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 02 $28 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 02 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $32 +$36 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 18 $50 +$10 +19%
Fed rate hike in 2026? May 12 $591 +$20 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10? May 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 09 $48 +$43 +90%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 9? May 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 02 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 02 $40 +$60 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 01 $4 +$5 +129%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 09 $24 −$23 -97%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $150 +$50 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 23 $10 −$9 -88%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Mar 23 $10 −$6 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 18 $100 +$66 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 18? Mar 18 $10 +$66 +656%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 17 $100 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 17 $110 −$7 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 16 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $100 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 15 $10 +$27 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 15 $10 +$3 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $16 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 95¢ $238 13d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $232 13d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $0 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $4 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $0 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $0 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $8 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $0 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $4 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $10 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.74 · official $129.74 (match) · 222 history records