Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x792b…0775 sports 613 markets active 6d ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$417 (-1%) realized −$414 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate57%350W / 259L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$37
14 days−$37
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$181
other 2% −$138
weather 2% −$368
economics 0% −$30
politics 0% −$24
world 0% −$42
crypto 0% +$1
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -45.8% -51.0% 0% 0% -70.7%
≤30d 6 -45.8% -51.0% 0% 0% -70.7%
≤90d 96 -49.9% -54.7% 24% 14% -57.3%
all 609 -10.8% -19.3% 57% 53% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 53% -10.8%
10% -27.0% 45% -19.3%
15% -34.0% 36% -27.1%
20% -40.5% 25% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$34 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$414
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses350 / 259
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)609 / 613
History coverage468d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 609 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $7 $5 −$1 (-21%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -60%
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 11 $0 $0 -8%
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -56%
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 11 $8 −$4 -54%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Jun 11 $7 −$1 -13%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 11 $34 −$29 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher on April 21? Apr 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 23? Apr 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ap Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 22? Apr 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on April 22? Apr 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 22? Apr 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 2 Apr 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 22? Apr 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on April 22? Apr 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 22? Apr 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or higher on April 22? Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 22? Apr 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 22? Apr 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 12°C on April 22? Apr 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 22? Apr 23 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C or higher on April 22 Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C or higher on April Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 21? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 22? Apr 23 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 22? Apr 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on April 22? Apr 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 21? Apr 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 22? Apr 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 22? Apr 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on April 22? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 22? Apr 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 21? Apr 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 22? Apr 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 2 Apr 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 22? Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 22? Apr 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 21? Apr 23 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C or higher on April 21? Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on April 21? Apr 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 21? Apr 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 22 Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 21? Apr 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C or higher on April 22? Apr 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on April 22? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on April 22? Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C or below on April 22? Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 22? Apr 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 21? Apr 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 6d
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL No 4¢ $0 6d
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL No 22¢ $2 6d
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? SELL No 34¢ $4 6d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? SELL No 60¢ $6 6d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ap BUY Yes 1¢ $0 55d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ap BUY Yes 1¢ $0 55d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ap BUY Yes 1¢ $1 55d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ap BUY Yes 1¢ $0 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $7 55d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on April 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 56d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on April 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 56d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on April 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 56d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on April 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 56d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on April 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 56d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on April 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 56d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on April 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 56d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on April 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 56d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on April 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 56d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on April 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 56d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on April 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 56d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on April 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 56d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on April 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 56d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on April 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 56d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on April 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 56d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on April 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 56d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on April 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.78 · official $16.78 (match) · 2609 history records