Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:13:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

79 0x792b…ef47 crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip

Net edge-17%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate95%19W / 1L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$489per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Kalshi-fit90%portable

Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days+$0

14 days+$0

30 days+$1

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-13.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+0.7%	-8.9%	100%	0%	-8.9%
≤30d	2	+0.6%	-9.0%	100%	0%	-9.0%
≤90d	4	+1.7%	-8.0%	100%	0%	-8.0%
all	20	-4.4%	-13.5%	95%	0%	-9.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-13.5%	0%	-9.6%
10%	-21.8%	0%	-18.3%
15%	-29.4%	0%	-26.2%
20%	-36.3%	0%	-33.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,158) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -10% → late +1% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$27 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.62 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage

Net worth$44

Realized−$10

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)95%

Wins / losses19 / 1

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Open positions1

Markets (closed)20 / 21

History coverage157d

Avg bet$489

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	100¢	99¢	$45	$44	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026?	Jun 11	$44	$0	+1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May?	Jun 01	$44	$0	+0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	May 08	$44	$0	+0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	Apr 28	$42	+$2	+6%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?	Mar 17	$41	+$1	+1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on March 3?	Mar 08	$41	$0	+0%
Will Iranian officials visit the White House by February 28?	Mar 02	$41	$0	+0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on February 26	Feb 28	$41	$0	+0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20	Feb 26	$41	$0	+0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 37°C on February 7?	Feb 22	$41	$0	+0%
Will Solana reach $150 January 19-25?	Feb 07	$330	$0	+0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in January?	Feb 07	$6	$0	+1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 19-25?	Jan 26	$1,164	+$1	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 19-25?	Jan 25	$1,664	+$3	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 19-25?	Jan 24	$832	+$2	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on January 2	Jan 23	$1,159	+$1	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 19-25?	Jan 23	$1,158	+$1	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 22?	Jan 23	$2,307	+$3	+0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 19-25?	Jan 22	$1,154	+$1	+0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January?	Jan 11	$27	−$27	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$45	1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026?	BUY No	99¢	$44	6d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$44	39d
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	BUY No	100¢	$44	50d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	BUY No	95¢	$42	91d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?	BUY No	99¢	$41	101d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on March 3?	BUY No	100¢	$41	106d
Will Iranian officials visit the White House by February 28?	BUY No	100¢	$41	109d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on February 26	BUY No	100¢	$41	111d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20	BUY No	100¢	$41	114d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 37°C on February 7?	BUY No	100¢	$41	129d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in January?	BUY No	99¢	$6	142d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 19-25?	SELL No	100¢	$378	142d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 19-25?	SELL No	100¢	$457	142d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 19-25?	SELL No	100¢	$83	142d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 19-25?	SELL No	100¢	$247	142d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 19-25?	BUY No	100¢	$251	142d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 19-25?	BUY No	100¢	$583	142d
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 19-25?	SELL No	100¢	$11	142d
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 19-25?	SELL No	100¢	$7	142d
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 19-25?	SELL No	100¢	$5	142d
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 19-25?	SELL No	100¢	$5	142d
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 19-25?	SELL No	100¢	$100	142d
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 19-25?	SELL No	100¢	$10	142d
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 19-25?	SELL No	100¢	$9	142d
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 19-25?	SELL No	100¢	$1	142d
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 19-25?	SELL No	100¢	$687	142d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 19-25?	BUY No	100¢	$330	143d
Will Solana reach $150 January 19-25?	SELL No	100¢	$330	143d
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 19-25?	BUY No	100¢	$834	143d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.48 · official $44.48 (match) · 120 history records