Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:33:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7928…f432 world 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,431 (-10%) realized −$1,431 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate39%39W / 60L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$623
7 days−$916
14 days−$917
30 days−$1,428
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$295
other 18% −$2,242
politics 12% +$664
tech 3% −$165
sports 2% −$75
crypto 1% −$56
finance 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +50.8% +36.4% 29% 14% -66.7%
≤30d 48 +48.5% +34.4% 50% 40% -25.3%
≤90d 94 +10.1% -0.4% 37% 30% -24.0%
all 99 +13.4% +2.6% 39% 31% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.6% 31% -23.8%
10% -7.2% 24% -31.1%
15% -16.2% 20% -37.7%
20% -24.4% 14% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late +44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$67 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,431
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses39 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage149d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? Yes 18¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $2,899 −$623 -22%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $19 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $240 −$141 -59%
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $97 +$6 +6%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $454 −$159 -35%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$7 +684%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $651 −$651 -100%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $76 +$3 +4%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 30 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $1,553 −$1,553 -100%
Kosice: Peter Fajta vs Franco Roncadelli May 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Chisinau: Daniil Glinka vs Liam Broady May 28 $9 +$2 +18%
Chisinau: Radu Albot vs Timofey Skatov May 28 $6 +$2 +33%
ITF Kutaisi: Robin Catry vs Daniel Lara Salmeron May 28 $1 +$3 +186%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 28 $738 +$182 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $2,417 +$153 +6%
Roland Garros WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Ashlyn Krueger May 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Cameron Norrie vs Adolfo Vallejo May 26 $7 +$3 +36%
Roland Garros ATP: Thomas Faurel vs Valentin Vacherot May 26 $2 +$5 +200%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? May 26 $53 +$18 +34%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $6 −$3 -43%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $360 +$314 +87%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 23, 2026? May 24 $10 −$9 -90%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 24 $10 −$1 -14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $164 +$628 +383%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 23 $50 +$35 +70%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $455 +$53 +12%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) May 23 $101 +$53 +52%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 23 $5 +$4 +78%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins May 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 23 $599 +$333 +56%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026? May 21 $296 −$296 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 21 $59 −$20 -33%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $24 −$13 -54%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 20 $441 +$384 +87%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 20 $41 −$2 -6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 19 $28 +$13 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 19 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 19 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 19 $10 +$17 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 13 $3 $0 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $31 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $7 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $12 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $13 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $32 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $43 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $62 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $19 12h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 27¢ $19 14h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 27¢ $19 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $44 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $35 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $4 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $0 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $0 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $4 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $16 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $52 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.09 · official $0.09 (match) · 535 history records