Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:01:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
79 0x7925…3cc1 crypto 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate80%47W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$5
crypto 11% +$1
other 4% $0
politics 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 59 +0.1% -9.4% 80% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses47 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage528d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? Apr 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 01 $37 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? Mar 04 $46 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 02 $26 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $200 in January? Feb 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in December? Jan 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? Jan 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November? Dec 03 $52 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Nov 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? Nov 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe Oct 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September? Oct 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Sep 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.40 in August? Sep 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? Aug 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Aug 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? Jul 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? Jul 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 07 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in May? Jun 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? May 04 $1 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? May 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 20% on April 30? May 04 $7 $0 +2%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 04 $7 $0 +1%
Will Silviu Predoiu win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 19 $98 $0 -0%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in the next Apr 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will Solana hit $190 in March? Apr 03 $12 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Clint Capela lead the NBA in Rebounds? Mar 25 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets finish with the worst regular season record? Mar 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 15 $5,219 −$5 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.30-1.34ºC in February 20 Mar 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 by February 28 2025? 1 Mar 04 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Mar 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 04 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $65 1h
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $42 30d
Will Solana reach $130 in April? BUY No 100¢ $13 61d
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? BUY No 100¢ $15 62d
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? BUY No 100¢ $35 62d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $8 91d
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? BUY No 100¢ $17 91d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? BUY No 100¢ $37 92d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $3 120d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $13 122d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? BUY No 100¢ $46 122d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 99¢ $26 149d
Will Solana reach $200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $30 150d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in December? BUY No 100¢ $22 181d
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 182d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November? BUY No 100¢ $52 211d
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? BUY No 100¢ $14 241d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? BUY No 100¢ $31 242d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $8 273d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe BUY Yes 100¢ $15 273d
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $36 274d
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? BUY No 100¢ $6 301d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $14 302d
Will XRP reach $5.40 in August? BUY No 100¢ $43 302d
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? BUY No 100¢ $5 332d
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $8 333d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? BUY No 100¢ $45 333d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 362d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? BUY No 100¢ $23 364d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.63 · official $64.63 (match) · 124 history records