Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:12:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
79 0x7923…dfcd crypto 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$46 (+8%) realized +$49 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate75%45W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day73.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$2
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +5.8% -4.3% 75% 55% -8.7%
≤30d 60 +5.8% -4.3% 75% 55% -8.7%
≤90d 60 +5.8% -4.3% 75% 55% -8.7%
all 60 +5.8% -4.3% 75% 55% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.3% 55% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -13.4% 45% -17.4%
15% -21.8% 30% -25.4%
20% -29.5% 13% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$49
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses45 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day73.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Up 73¢ 64¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 28 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 28 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 28 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 28 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 28 $6 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 28 $6 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 28 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$10 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$3 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $6 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $6 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $6 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $6 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $6 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $6 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.75 · official $16.61 · 152 history records