Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:30:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x791c…f146 weather 1371 markets active 3h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$53 (-1%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate86%1156W / 187L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$1
14 days−$9
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 74% −$7
crypto 24% −$80
finance 1% +$2
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
sports 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +2.1% -7.6% 95% 7% -10.1%
≤30d 292 -1.1% -10.5% 90% 15% -11.5%
≤90d 1019 -2.5% -11.8% 85% 16% -12.7%
all 1343 +0.2% -9.4% 86% 19% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 19% -11.0%
10% -18.0% 8% -19.5%
15% -26.0% 5% -27.3%
20% -33.2% 4% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses1156 / 187
Open positions28
Markets (closed)1343 / 1371
History coverage242d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 1343 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? No 97¢ 99¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? No 96¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 17? No 97¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 18? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 17? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 17? No 97¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 18? No 98¢ 96¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? No 94¢ 91¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? No 98¢ 93¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C or higher on June 18? No 95¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? No 96¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 16? No 98¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? No 97¢ 93¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? No 98¢ 92¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 17? No 97¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 18? No 98¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? No 98¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 18? No 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 16? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 16? Jun 17 $12 −$3 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? Jun 17 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$3 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 15? Jun 16 $9 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on June Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 83°F or below on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $4 10h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 68¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 42¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 61¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.36 · official $92.36 (match) · 3355 history records