Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:42:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
79 0x791a…bc50 other 331 markets active 2d ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate73%241W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$0
14 days−$7
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$14
tech 9% +$7
politics 9% −$13
sports 8% $0
world 1% +$2
economics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -8.0% -16.7% 60% 40% -10.4%
≤30d 10 -8.4% -17.1% 70% 40% -15.2%
≤90d 44 +6.6% -3.5% 82% 52% -9.8%
all 328 +0.9% -8.7% 73% 61% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 61% -8.5%
10% -17.4% 48% -17.2%
15% -25.4% 29% -25.2%
20% -32.7% 16% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses241 / 87
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)328 / 331
History coverage482d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 328 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 94¢ 88¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 87¢ 94¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 +2%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 01 $5 $0 +6%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +20%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $10 +$3 +28%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16? May 18 $1 $0 +18%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $2 $0 +31%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 14 $1 $0 +21%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 07 $10 +$1 +5%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 07 $18 +$1 +5%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 27 $1 +$1 +46%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? Apr 27 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 27 $1 +$1 +42%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? Apr 27 $1 +$1 +59%
Sichuan Blue Whales vs. Zhejiang Golden Bulls Apr 27 $7 $0 +6%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $1 $0 +16%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $1 $0 +18%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $1 +$1 +34%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $2 +$1 +24%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $1 +$1 +42%
Beijing Royal Fighters vs. Sichuan Blue Whales Apr 20 $7 $0 +3%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 16 $3 −$2 -68%
Sichuan Blue Whales vs. Shenzhen Leopards Apr 14 $8 $0 +1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 13 $2 −$1 -99%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $2 −$1 -99%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-04-10? Apr 13 $1 $0 +27%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11? Apr 13 $3 +$1 +34%
Liaoning Flying Leopards vs. Fujian Sturgeons Apr 08 $1 $0 +4%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-04? Apr 08 $1 $0 +43%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? Apr 08 $1 +$1 +41%
Jilin Northeast Tigers vs. Sichuan Blue Whales Apr 08 $4 $0 +4%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Tianjin Pioneers Apr 03 $2 $0 +3%
Jilin Northeast Tigers vs. Sichuan Blue Whales Apr 03 $7 $0 +3%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 01 $9 +$2 +23%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $13 +$1 +6%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Mar 30 $1 −$1 -60%
Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-15? Mar 16 $3 +$1 +30%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-06? Mar 08 $1 $0 +15%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 08 $2 $0 +25%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-03-06? Mar 08 $2 +$2 +61%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-07? Mar 08 $2 +$2 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 95¢ $5 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $3 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 13d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 94¢ $7 13d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $7 13d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $7 13d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 17d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 90¢ $5 17d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 94¢ $5 34d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 84¢ $5 34d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 34d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 34d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 34d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 34d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 34d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 34d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 77¢ $10 40d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 50d
Sichuan Blue Whales vs. Zhejiang Golden Bulls BUY Zhejiang Golden Bulls 94¢ $7 54d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 54d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 54d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 54d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 56d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 56d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 56d
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.19 · official $17.19 (match) · 631 history records