Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:34:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x791a…a1a3 world 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-1%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate40%33W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$9
other 24% +$19
politics 14% −$1
sports 10% −$20
economics 3% $0
weather 0% −$7
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 28 -0.1% -9.6% 43% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 64 -0.6% -10.1% 36% 0% -9.9%
all 83 -1.5% -10.9% 40% 7% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 7% -10.1%
10% -19.4% 7% -18.7%
15% -27.2% 5% -26.6%
20% -34.4% 5% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses33 / 50
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage529d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 48¢ 48¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $28 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $7 $0 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $4 $0 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $28 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $57 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $2 $0 -10%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $28 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $29 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $110 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $23 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $111 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $28 $0 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $28 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $29 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $166 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $28 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $28 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $28 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $28 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $42 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $32 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $28 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $27 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $16 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $33 −$7 -20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 20 $38 −$5 -12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $40 $0 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $38 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 29 $65 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $78 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $41 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $82 −$1 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $50 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $5 $0 +4%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $195 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $41 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $37 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 11 $79 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $32 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 35h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 93¢ $29 43h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 91¢ $21 47h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 91¢ $7 47h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $7 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $28 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $4 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $24 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $10 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $19 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $29 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $31 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $31 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $28 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $28 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $28 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $8 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $21 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.01 · official $32.01 (match) · 315 history records