Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:56:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

79
0x7917…15e6
weather · 46 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$16 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$14 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$26
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses15 / 22
Open positions9
Markets (closed)37 / 46
History coverage74d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 9 History 37 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? No 52¢ 100¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+92%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? No 65¢ 68¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? No 69¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? No 63¢ 63¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? No 62¢ 60¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? No 6¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? No 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-92%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? No 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on April 4? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 7? No 70¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 6? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on April 6? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 5? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 6? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 10? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 4? No 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or higher on April 7? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 6? No 76¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on April 7? No 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 5? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 6? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 1? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 1? No 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 6? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 10 Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on April 9 Apr 10 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or below on April 10? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 7 Apr 09 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on April 8? Apr 09 $25 +$7 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 8? Apr 09 $35 +$5 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 7? Apr 09 $8 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 8? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 6? Apr 07 $3 +$6 +194%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C or higher on April 6? Apr 07 $4 +$4 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 6? Apr 07 $9 +$3 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 6? Apr 07 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 5? Apr 07 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 3? Apr 07 $5 +$2 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on April 4? Apr 07 $5 +$12 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or higher on April 3? Apr 07 $5 +$32 +635%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on April 2? Apr 07 $5 +$2 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on April 7? Apr 07 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or higher on April 7? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on April 7? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 6? Apr 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on April 6? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 6? Apr 06 $3 −$1 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 7? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 6? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 7? Apr 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 6? Apr 05 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 6? Apr 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 5? Apr 05 $7 −$2 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 5? Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on April 5? Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ap Apr 04 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 4? Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on April 4? Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 2? Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 1? Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 1? Mar 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 6¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 62¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 6¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 63¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 52¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 69¢ $6 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 65¢ $6 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 10 BUY No 1¢ $1 63d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or below on April 10? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 64d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 8? BUY No 2¢ $0 66d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 8? BUY No 2¢ $0 66d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on April 9 BUY No 78¢ $3 66d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on April 9 BUY No 78¢ $1 66d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on April 8? BUY No 77¢ $4 66d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on April 8? BUY No 77¢ $4 66d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 8? BUY No 86¢ $2 66d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 8? BUY No 86¢ $7 66d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 8? BUY No 86¢ $7 66d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on April 8? BUY No 77¢ $9 66d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on April 8? BUY No 79¢ $9 66d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 8? BUY No 86¢ $0 66d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 8? BUY No 86¢ $2 66d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 8? BUY No 86¢ $9 66d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 8? BUY No 86¢ $9 66d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 7? BUY No 74¢ $4 66d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on April 7? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 67d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or higher on April 7? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 67d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or higher on April 7? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 37 -17.1% -25.0% 41% 41% -2.4%
all 37 -17.1% -25.0% 41% 41% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 41% -2.4%
10% -32.2% 32% -11.7%
15% -38.8% 19% -20.2%
20% -44.8% 14% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.45 · official $26.57 (match) · 129 history records