Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:07:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7914…489d politics 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 334d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate32%23W / 49L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% +$1
politics 25% $0
other 24% +$3
crypto 8% +$1
culture 6% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.4% -7.3% 20% 20% -9.3%
≤30d 9 +1.4% -8.3% 33% 11% -9.4%
≤90d 9 +1.4% -8.3% 33% 11% -9.4%
all 72 -0.1% -9.6% 32% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 3% -9.3%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

334d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses23 / 49
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage334d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 84¢ 86¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+2%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $155 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $48 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +12%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $48 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $47 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $43 $0 +1%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 17 $3 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 14 $12 $0 +1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 13 $8 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August? Aug 13 $11 +$1 +13%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in August? Aug 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 12 $2 $0 +4%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 12 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 11 $13 $0 -1%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 11 $8 $0 -1%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $9 $0 -3%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 11 $55 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $115,000 on August 11? Aug 11 $2 −$1 -38%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 10 $64 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Aug 10 $70 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 18–25? Aug 10 $79 +$2 +2%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Aug 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 05 $8 $0 -0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 04 $8 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Aug 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Aug 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Aug 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 01 $8 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $48 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 47h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $17 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $48 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $48 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $47 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $47 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $33 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $39 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $48 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $48 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.75 · official $48.73 (match) · 221 history records