Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:33:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7910…29e0 crypto 206 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$78 (+0%) realized +$79 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate76%155W / 49L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$284per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$24
14 days+$66
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% +$569
other 35% −$639
sports 0% +$15
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +3.9% -6.0% 59% 47% -14.6%
≤30d 26 +5.2% -4.8% 62% 50% -0.7%
≤90d 101 -4.4% -13.5% 67% 39% -12.9%
all 204 -0.7% -10.1% 76% 34% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 34% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 17% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 12% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$108 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized+$79
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses155 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)204 / 206
History coverage131d
Avg bet$284
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $88 $87 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $85 +$3 +4%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $30 −$16 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $22 −$12 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 25 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $7 +$7 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $44 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 25 $45 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $13 +$7 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 25 $28 +$12 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7AM ET Jun 25 $45 −$17 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 25 $23 +$16 +68%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $11 +$10 +86%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $11 −$3 -28%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $12 −$11 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 -13%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $4 +$2 +63%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -39%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 +$3 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 $0 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $131 +$64 +49%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $69 +$31 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2AM ET May 28 $68 +$24 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 28 $9 −$6 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 26 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 26 $16 −$11 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 26 $82 +$17 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 25 $92 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 25 $244 +$74 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 05 $2 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3AM ET May 05 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9PM ET May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? May 04 $150 −$53 -35%
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 04 $151 −$17 -11%
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 04 $53 −$30 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 01 $51 +$33 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5AM ET May 01 $37 +$2 +6%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? May 01 $90 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 21 $364 −$349 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 21 $215 −$208 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 21 $296 +$276 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 21 $293 +$20 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 21 $271 +$13 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $88 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $0 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 81¢ $88 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $85 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $20 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 27¢ $14 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 3h
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? AN BUY 39¢ $10 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $41 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $50 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $44 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $49 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $19 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $17 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.94 · official $86.94 (match) · 1312 history records