Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:37:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7908…29d3 crypto 326 markets active 3d ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$36 (-7%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%144W / 182L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$15
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$45
weather 7% −$15
sports 2% −$3
other 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -3.0% -12.3% 51% 48% -13.6%
≤30d 246 -18.8% -26.5% 43% 39% -22.1%
≤90d 326 -16.2% -24.2% 44% 40% -20.9%
all 326 -16.2% -24.2% 44% 40% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 40% -20.9%
10% -31.4% 37% -28.5%
15% -38.1% 29% -35.4%
20% -44.1% 21% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses144 / 182
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)326 / 326
History coverage66d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 326 Trades
no open positions (57 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +46%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 722 history records