Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:44:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
79 0x7906…be5d sports 279 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,414 (-1%) realized −$6,438 · open +$24
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate65%178W / 94L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,013per market
Trades / day33.3pace
Fees−$2,124est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$9,830now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 45d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$1,905
other 7% +$720
crypto 1% −$93
politics 0% −$289
world 0% +$508
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -10.1% -18.7% 56% 30% -9.3%
≤30d 170 -0.3% -9.8% 61% 35% -9.2%
≤90d 272 -2.2% -11.5% 65% 30% -9.6%
all 272 -2.2% -11.5% 65% 30% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 30% -9.6%
10% -20.0% 21% -18.3%
15% ← realistic here -27.7% 16% -26.2%
20% -34.8% 10% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$1,798) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$142 vs −$280 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$9,830
Realized−$6,438
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses178 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$2,124
Open positions7
Markets (closed)272 / 279
History coverage45d
Avg bet$2,013
Trades / day33.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 272 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Over 93¢ 92¢ $9,308 $9,250 −$58 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $168 $235 +$67 (+40%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $180 $198 +$18 (+10%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $104 $107 +$3 (+3%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $19 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes $10 $14 +$4 (+43%)
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes $18 $11 −$7 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $9,612 +$388 +4%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $9,612 +$388 +4%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $8,938 +$754 +8%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $9,417 +$583 +6%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri Jun 19 $8,330 +$425 +5%
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Volodymyr Iakubenko Jun 19 $942 +$316 +34%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $2,178 −$1,129 -52%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $805 +$195 +24%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $756 −$557 -74%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $215 +$39 +18%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $716 −$254 -35%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3,188 +$590 +18%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $176 +$9 +5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$76 -74%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $232 −$24 -10%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $241 +$59 +24%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $188 +$62 +33%
ITF Samobor: Jakub Vrba vs Noa Vukadin Jun 17 $156 −$156 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $417 +$2 +0%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3,577 −$742 -21%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $2,976 +$265 +9%
ITF Saarlouis: Adrian Oetzbach vs Niels Ratiu Jun 16 $231 +$7 +3%
Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Emilio Nava Jun 16 $267 −$67 -25%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 16 $114 +$11 +9%
ITF Kayseri: Ruben Lebron Puerta vs Rafael Giotis Jun 16 $239 +$161 +67%
ITF Ystad: Ida Wobker vs Johanne Christine Svendsen Jun 16 $192 −$154 -80%
ITF Blois: Yaroslava Bartashevich vs Sofya Lansere Jun 16 $284 −$107 -38%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $286 +$114 +40%
ITF Blois: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Margaux Rouvroy Jun 16 $220 −$147 -67%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $244 +$256 +105%
ITF Gyula: Jan Hrazdil vs Tudor Batin Jun 16 $235 −$232 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $256 −$254 -99%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $172 −$23 -13%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $893 −$425 -48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $903 −$280 -31%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $153 −$84 -55%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $305 +$180 +59%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $125 −$71 -56%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $79 +$21 +26%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $127 +$73 +57%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 14 $5,105 +$110 +2%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $300 −$181 -60%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 14 $247 +$104 +42%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Taylah Preston Jun 13 $158 +$142 +90%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Alicia Dudeney vs Yulia Putintseva Jun 13 $184 −$98 -53%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $1,883 +$117 +6%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $4,116 +$407 +10%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $73 +$41 +55%
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt Jun 13 $89 −$88 -98%
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $289 −$285 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $716 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $941 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $1,034 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $6,635 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $9,612 9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $9,612 11h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $185 25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $8,753 25h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $9,417 32h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 95¢ $8,330 37h
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Volodymyr Iakubenko BUY Ivan Marrero Curbelo 98¢ $49 41h
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Volodymyr Iakubenko BUY Ivan Marrero Curbelo 98¢ $49 41h
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Volodymyr Iakubenko BUY Ivan Marrero Curbelo 98¢ $49 41h
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Volodymyr Iakubenko BUY Ivan Marrero Curbelo 98¢ $105 41h
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Volodymyr Iakubenko BUY Ivan Marrero Curbelo 69¢ $690 42h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 35¢ $3 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 35¢ $974 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 36¢ $73 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $2,178 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 20¢ $132 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 20¢ $67 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $254 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $215 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 47¢ $463 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $756 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $805 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $716 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $185 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 12¢ $18 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,830.03 · official $9,830.05 (match) · 1720 history records