Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:48:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
79 0x7902…170c sports 396 markets active 2h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$33,392 (+1%) realized +$33,392 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate66%262W / 132L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,103per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,816
7 days+$2,272
14 days+$2,222
30 days+$2,243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$17,152
other 18% +$18,495
crypto 1% −$43
world 1% −$4
politics 0% −$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +204.2% +175.2% 89% 78% +296.0%
≤30d 17 +103.4% +84.1% 82% 71% +181.1%
≤90d 50 +41.9% +28.4% 82% 68% +2.6%
all 394 -21.5% -29.0% 66% 19% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.0% 19% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -35.8% 9% -17.1%
15% -42.0% 5% -25.2%
20% -47.7% 3% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$10,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -32% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$464 vs −$652 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$33,392
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses262 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions0
Markets (closed)394 / 396
History coverage599d
Avg bet$7,103
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 394 Trades
no open positions (116 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06- Jun 28 $300 +$1,717 +572%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $51 +$47 +93%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $91 +$52 +57%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Ecuador win on 202 Jun 26 $41 +$427 +1038%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $51 +$65 +128%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $27 +$7 +24%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $32 +$5 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 +$3 +8%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $50 +$5 +10%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $30 +$4 +14%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $41 −$40 -98%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 03 $50 +$20 +40%
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $70 +$8 +12%
Real Racing Club vs. Cádiz CF: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $50 +$15 +29%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 28 $20 +$32 +158%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $54 +$6 +11%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $101 +$7 +7%
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5) May 27 $30 +$8 +27%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $40 +$15 +38%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$8 +83%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $20 +$44 +216%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahce May 22 $25 +$11 +44%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $50 +$9 +17%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $15 +$6 +42%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 5.5 May 20 $51 +$4 +8%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Heart of Midlothian FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $30 +$13 +42%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $30 +$8 +26%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $30 +$7 +24%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 May 06 $20 +$2 +8%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 04 $30 −$30 -99%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-05-02? May 04 $50 +$9 +17%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5) Apr 30 $50 +$7 +14%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Apr 30 $30 +$6 +21%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Monaco Apr 29 $30 +$4 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Apr 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Leicester City FC vs. Millwall FC end in a draw? Apr 24 $34 −$33 -99%
Will Al Najmah Saudi Club win on 2026-04-23? Apr 23 $33 +$1 +3%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $28 +$4 +16%
Panathinaikos vs. Monaco Apr 22 $25 +$3 +13%
Udinese Calcio vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 2.5 Apr 21 $20 +$5 +25%
AZ vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 1.5 Apr 16 $50 +$12 +24%
AZ vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 4.5 Apr 16 $500 −$490 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $18,025 +$2,161 +12%
Bulls vs. Spurs Mar 31 $16,972 +$1,053 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06- BUY 14¢ $300 26h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $143 32h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? AND Will Algeria vs. Austria end BUY 5¢ $100 36h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $91 2d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $116 2d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Ecuador win on 202 BUY 9¢ $21 2d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 2d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Ecuador win on 202 BUY 9¢ $21 2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $27 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $32 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $30 5d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $51 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 12d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 16¢ $31 16d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $50 16d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 87¢ $30 17d
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 35¢ $41 20d
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos BUY Olympiacos B.C. 71¢ $50 24d
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 89¢ $70 25d
Real Racing Club vs. Cádiz CF: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $50 27d
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-28? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 30d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas SELL Matteo Arnaldi 100¢ $53 30d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas BUY Matteo Arnaldi 38¢ $20 30d
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 90¢ $54 31d
Will Racing Club win on 2026-05-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $108 31d
Will Racing Club win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 93¢ $101 31d
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5) BUY Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 78¢ $30 31d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $40 34d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $40 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 905 history records