Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:55:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

78
0x78ff…6b68
sports · 1877 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$356 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$163 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$83
Realized−$163
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses1220 / 627
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions14
Markets (closed)1847 / 1877
History coverage56d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day46.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 14 History 1847 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$8
14 days+$5
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Gen.G 70¢ 72¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Bilibili Gaming 70¢ 69¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Bilibili Gaming 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Gen.G 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Bilibili Gaming 61¢ 61¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Yes 83¢ 68¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-18%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 71¢ 72¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+61%)
Game 3: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Yes 83¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Game 2: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Yes 83¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Yes 86¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Yes 86¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Game 3: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Yes 87¢ 45¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-48%)
Game 2: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Yes 87¢ 45¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-48%)
Ausar Thompson: Points O/U 8.5 Yes 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Natus Vincere 60¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Yes 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 3 Winner MVK Esports 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Yes 81¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Luguentz Dort: Assists O/U 0.5 Yes 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Ninjas in Pyjamas 59¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Deandre Ayton: Points O/U 9.5 Yes 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Aaron Gordon: Points O/U 2.5 Yes 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner LOUD 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Fnatic vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs Fnatic 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Gui Santos: Points O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Game Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Miles Bridges: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +90%
Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Game 2: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +48%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $41 +$5 +11%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $60 +$24 +40%
Game Handicap: SGW (-1.5) vs Saigon Dino (+1.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 -25%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $40 +$5 +13%
Game 2: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $11 +$3 +30%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$14 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
Game 3: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Jun 13 $1 $0 +27%
Game 2: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Jun 13 $1 $0 +27%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Jun 13 $1 $0 +27%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$2 +21%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$1 +27%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Dota 2: MODUS vs 1p2m (BO3) - The International Europe Open Qualifier Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 +$2 +49%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $30 +$10 +32%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$2 +97%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Game 3: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Game 2: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+2.5) Jun 12 $30 +$4 +14%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 93% −$122
other 7% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 70¢ $10 1h
Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 1h
Game 3: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 1h
Game 2: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 1h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 62¢ $2 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 63¢ $1 1h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 62¢ $3 3h
Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? BUY Yes 83¢ $2 3h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 61¢ $3 3h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 62¢ $2 3h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 70¢ $20 3h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 62¢ $2 4h
Game 3: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 4h
Game 2: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 4h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 71¢ $2 4h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 70¢ $30 4h
Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 2.5 BUY Yes 98¢ $4 11h
Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 0.5 BUY Yes 97¢ $3 11h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 57¢ $2 11h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 53¢ $10 12h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 73¢ $1 12h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud9 52¢ $2 12h
Game 2: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 12h
Game 2: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 12h
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? BUY Over 51¢ $1 12h
Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 12h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 53¢ $41 12h
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 67¢ $2 12h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 70¢ $5 17h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 70¢ $40 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 -5.5% -14.5% 69% 58% -10.5%
≤30d 675 -3.9% -13.0% 69% 61% -10.8%
≤90d 1847 -7.0% -15.9% 66% 51% -11.9%
all 1847 -7.0% -15.9% 66% 51% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover46.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 51% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 41% -20.3%
15% -31.3% 30% -28.0%
20% -38.0% 22% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.29 · official $83.30 (match) · 3500 history records