Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78ff…dca9 crypto 1027 markets active 2d ago coverage 16d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$352 (-4%) realized −$352 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%552W / 475L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day84.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$465
14 days−$900
30 days−$537
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$537
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 336 -26.1% -33.2% 37% 36% -26.5%
≤30d 1027 -9.2% -17.9% 54% 53% -14.7%
≤90d 1027 -9.2% -17.9% 54% 53% -14.7%
all 1027 -9.2% -17.9% 54% 53% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 53% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 53% -22.9%
15% -32.9% 53% -30.3%
20% -39.5% 39% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$352
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses552 / 475
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1027 / 1027
History coverage16d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day84.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1027 Trades
no open positions (337 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$8 +288%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$5 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$14 +945%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$5 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1958 history records