Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:04:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

78 0x78f6…491e other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$133 (-36%) realized −$136 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip

Net edge-51%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$61per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 137d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-51.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+115.1%	+94.6%	100%	100%	+94.6%
≤30d	1	+115.1%	+94.6%	100%	100%	+94.6%
≤90d	1	+115.1%	+94.6%	100%	100%	+94.6%
all	4	-46.2%	-51.4%	25%	25%	-55.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-51.4%	25%	-55.0%
10%	-56.0%	25%	-59.3%
15%	-60.3%	25%	-63.2%
20%	-64.2%	25%	-66.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +115% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -46% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$71 vs −$68 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.35 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage

Net worth$103

Realized−$136

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage137d

Avg bet$61

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	3¢	$50	$53	+$3 (+6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Jun 21	$62	+$71	+115%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	Mar 06	$35	−$35	-100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	Mar 06	$100	−$100	-100%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	Feb 06	$70	−$70	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$51	1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$51	1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	SELL Yes	90¢	$132	46h
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	BUY Yes	28¢	$35	108d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	BUY Yes	12¢	$100	108d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	42¢	$62	136d
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	BUY Yes	8¢	$70	136d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.58 · official $102.58 (match) · 7 history records