trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -12.1% | -20.4% | 50% | 50% | -51.0% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -12.1% | -20.4% | 50% | 50% | -51.0% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -78.0% | -80.1% | 12% | 12% | -84.9% |
| all | 25 | -44.2% | -49.6% | 36% | 28% | -15.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -49.6% | 28% | -15.7% |
| 10% | -54.4% | 28% | -23.7% |
| 15% | -58.8% | 20% | -31.1% |
| 20% | -62.8% | 20% | -37.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? | Yes | 22¢ | 24¢ | $50 | $56 | +$6 (+11%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | $50 | $53 | +$3 (+6%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 7¢ | $50 | $37 | −$13 (-26%) |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 10¢ | 9¢ | $40 | $35 | −$5 (-14%) |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 7¢ | $40 | $28 | −$12 (-30%) |
| Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | $20 | $20 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? | Yes | 12¢ | 12¢ | $20 | $19 | −$1 (-4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 15 | $40 | +$30 | +76% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $92 | −$90 | -98% |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | Apr 24 | $34 | −$34 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 17? | Apr 16 | $100 | −$98 | -98% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Apr 16 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs | Mar 20 | $80 | −$80 | -100% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Mar 20 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026? | Mar 20 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026? | Mar 10 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30? | Mar 09 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Mar 06 | $205 | +$136 | +66% |
| Will Trump visit China by March 31? | Mar 05 | $35 | −$35 | -100% |
| Opinion FDV above $600M one day after launch? | Mar 05 | $228 | +$58 | +25% |
| Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? | Mar 05 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Based FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Mar 04 | $17 | −$17 | -100% |
| Based FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Mar 03 | $84 | −$84 | -100% |
| Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? | Mar 03 | $276 | +$266 | +96% |
| LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs | Mar 01 | $56 | −$56 | -100% |
| Fabric FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Feb 28 | $37 | −$36 | -96% |
| Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch? | Feb 28 | $50 | +$5 | +9% |
| Fabric FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Feb 27 | $100 | +$55 | +55% |
| Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? | Feb 25 | $150 | +$6 | +4% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Feb 25 | $100 | +$35 | +35% |
| Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Feb 23 | $40 | −$40 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET | Feb 17 | $30 | +$37 | +123% |