Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:25:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78f0…7bf4 crypto 297 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$389 (-8%) realized −$389 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%141W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$204
7 days−$306
14 days−$306
30 days−$496
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$281
sports 16% −$318
other 15% +$33
world 1% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -22.4% -29.8% 38% 38% -29.5%
≤30d 73 -32.9% -39.3% 36% 36% -33.9%
≤90d 296 -1.3% -10.7% 48% 47% -19.8%
all 296 -1.3% -10.7% 48% 47% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 47% -19.8%
10% -19.3% 47% -27.5%
15% -27.1% 46% -34.5%
20% -34.2% 41% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$17 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$389
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses141 / 155
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)296 / 297
History coverage37d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 296 Trades
no open positions (150 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$16 +54%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$13 +38%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $29 +$31 +105%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $35 −$20 -57%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 +$4 +32%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 +$12 +38%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $56 −$55 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +236%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $36 −$36 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $107 −$106 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $103 +$97 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $138 −$137 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$14 +57%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$33 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $29 −$29 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $67 +$33 +50%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $41 −$3 -7%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $61 +$41 +67%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $56 +$50 +90%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $71 +$31 +43%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $46 −$45 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $20 +$83 +403%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $9 +$13 +146%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$49 -98%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 23 $16 −$15 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 23 $5 +$6 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 23 $7 +$8 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 23 $16 −$15 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 23 $10 +$9 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $46 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $18 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 72¢ $35 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $30 6h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 6h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 24¢ $15 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $29 8h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $35 9h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 83¢ $15 25h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $11 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $42 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 27h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $56 27h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 29h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 30h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 31h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $36 36h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $101 36h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $107 36h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $103 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 15¢ $5 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $67 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 642 history records