Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:11:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78ed…ab3a weather 208 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$297 (-1%) realized −$304 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate30%60W / 138L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day68.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$355now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$349
7 days−$333
14 days−$1,203
30 days−$802
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 81% +$38
world 7% −$415
politics 6% −$299
other 2% −$330
crypto 1% +$339
sports 1% −$18
finance 0% −$81
tech 0% −$23
economics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -17.4% -25.3% 28% 22% -12.8%
≤30d 198 -22.0% -29.4% 30% 26% -12.9%
≤90d 198 -22.0% -29.4% 30% 26% -12.9%
all 198 -22.0% -29.4% 30% 26% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.4% 26% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -36.2% 24% -21.3%
15% -42.3% 21% -28.9%
20% -48.0% 19% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$71 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$355
Realized−$304
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses60 / 138
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions8
Markets (closed)198 / 208
History coverage23d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day68.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Yes 10¢ 19¢ $50 $94 +$44 (+88%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-14%)
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Yes 39¢ 51¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+31%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $28 $4 −$24 (-87%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $187 −$38 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $104 +$132 +127%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $31 −$11 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $124 −$119 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $156 +$646 +414%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $515 −$500 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 16 $412 −$401 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 16 $309 −$309 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $62 −$60 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$22 +44%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $92 −$21 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $524 +$429 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $186 +$124 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $33 −$32 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $346 −$266 -77%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 15 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 15 $122 −$122 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 15 $258 −$258 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $310 −$310 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $187 −$187 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $30 +$44 +148%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $20 −$14 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $31 +$80 +255%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $150 −$63 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $301 +$516 +171%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $10 +$7 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 13 $31 −$6 -19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $200 +$5 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 13 $20 −$19 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $74 +$120 +163%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? SELL No 3¢ $48 13m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 27¢ $52 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 98¢ $236 5h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $104 5h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $52 5h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 19¢ $18 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $52 7h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? SELL No 22¢ $95 11h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? SELL No 22¢ $1 11h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $2 14h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 16h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 16h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $21 17h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $16 19h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $354.60 · official $339.75 · 1649 history records