Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:38:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78ec…fb49 crypto 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$25 (-13%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate45%35W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$24
world 19% +$5
other 6% −$9
tech 2% −$2
sports 2% +$9
politics 2% −$2
economics 1% −$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -23.6% -30.8% 47% 40% -30.0%
≤30d 18 -16.0% -24.0% 56% 44% -23.7%
≤90d 53 -38.3% -44.2% 30% 26% -37.8%
all 77 -11.7% -20.1% 45% 38% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 38% -21.6%
10% -27.7% 26% -29.1%
15% -34.7% 19% -36.0%
20% -41.1% 14% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses35 / 42
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 79
History coverage163d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+35%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 30¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +89%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -61%
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $11 +$2 +15%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 20 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 20 $5 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -94%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $2 +$8 +414%
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 40.0 on May 15, 2026? May 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -94%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $1 +$5 +477%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Apr 18 $9 +$1 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 18 $1 +$1 +146%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 8? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 7? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 6-12? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-07? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 8? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Maduro trial scheduled by January 31? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-01-06? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 06 $8 −$7 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 130-139 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 06 $1 $0 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes $0 1h
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL Yes $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $13 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 86¢ $11 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $1 27d
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 36d
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 40.0 on May 15, 2026? BUY Yes $1 36d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY Yes $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up $1 37d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes $1 37d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 19¢ $2 37d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $6 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.88 · official $1.88 (match) · 160 history records