Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:39:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78eb…03e3 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-2%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate34%11W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$5
other 28% −$1
crypto 4% $0
sports 2% $0
politics 2% $0
tech 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +13.8% +3.0% 25% 25% -6.2%
≤30d 13 +2.9% -6.9% 31% 15% -10.8%
≤90d 13 +2.9% -6.9% 31% 15% -10.8%
all 32 -7.0% -15.9% 34% 6% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 6% -10.7%
10% -23.9% 3% -19.2%
15% -31.3% 3% -27.0%
20% -38.0% 3% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage471d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 69¢ 68¢ $39 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $4 $0 -10%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $4 +$2 +67%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $10 $0 -1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $29 +$5 +16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $59 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $33 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $7 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $60 +$2 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $40 −$14 -34%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $42 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -91%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 -12%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 01 $4 −$1 -17%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 24 $2 −$1 -56%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 21 $1 $0 -3%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 21 $8 $0 +5%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw May 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? May 09 $8 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 07 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $13 $0 +1%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 06 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 13 $10 $0 -0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 10 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 69¢ $39 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 9h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 11h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 23h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $10 28h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $10 30h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $34 34h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $34 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $14 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $14 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 94¢ $34 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $15 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $15 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $30 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $4 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $27 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $5 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $25 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $29 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $29 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $29 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $22 12d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $8 12d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $31 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.36 · official $38.36 (match) · 98 history records