trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +66.7% | +50.8% | 100% | 100% | +50.8% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +66.7% | +50.8% | 100% | 100% | +50.8% |
| ≤90d | 1 | +66.7% | +50.8% | 100% | 100% | +50.8% |
| all | 51 | +18.8% | +7.5% | 75% | 73% | -9.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +7.5% | 73% | -9.1% |
| 10% | -2.8% | 27% | -17.8% |
| 15% | -12.2% | 16% | -25.8% |
| 20% | -20.8% | 14% | -33.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | Yes | 52¢ | 82¢ | $100 | $159 | +$59 (+59%) |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? | Yes | 48¢ | 48¢ | $100 | $99 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | Jun 25 | $240 | +$160 | +67% |
| Magic vs. Lakers | Mar 19 | $299 | −$299 | -100% |
| Will Powell say "Affordability" during March press conference? | Mar 19 | $39 | −$39 | -100% |
| Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during March press conference? | Mar 19 | $60 | −$60 | -100% |
| Kings vs. Clippers | Mar 19 | $88 | −$88 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Mar 19 | $420 | −$420 | -100% |
| Nets vs. Pistons | Mar 19 | $89 | −$89 | -100% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Pacers | Mar 19 | $86 | +$14 | +16% |
| Will Powell say "Successor" during March press conference? | Mar 19 | $11 | +$89 | +809% |
| Jazz vs. Timberwolves | Mar 19 | $87 | +$13 | +15% |
| Will Powell say "Speculate" or "Speculation" during March press confer | Mar 19 | $49 | +$51 | +104% |
| Cavaliers vs. Mavericks | Mar 14 | $85 | +$15 | +18% |
| Knicks vs. Pacers | Mar 14 | $86 | +$14 | +16% |
| Bulls vs. Clippers | Mar 14 | $84 | +$16 | +19% |
| Jazz vs. Trail Blazers | Mar 14 | $89 | +$11 | +13% |
| Mavericks vs. Magic | Mar 14 | $370 | −$290 | -78% |
| Mavericks vs. Hawks | Mar 14 | $80 | +$20 | +25% |
| Knicks vs. Jazz | Mar 14 | $90 | +$10 | +11% |
| Wizards vs. Magic | Mar 14 | $90 | +$10 | +11% |
| Pistons vs. Nets | Mar 14 | $90 | +$10 | +11% |
| Bulls vs. Lakers | Mar 14 | $83 | +$17 | +21% |
| Mavericks vs. Raptors | Mar 14 | $80 | +$20 | +25% |
| Nets vs. Heat | Mar 14 | $87 | +$13 | +15% |
| Wizards vs. Heat | Mar 14 | $90 | +$10 | +11% |
| Mavericks vs. Celtics | Mar 14 | $86 | +$14 | +16% |
| Pacers vs. Lakers | Mar 14 | $85 | +$15 | +18% |
| Pacers vs. Clippers | Mar 06 | $179 | +$21 | +12% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? | Mar 05 | $445 | −$445 | -100% |
| Mavericks vs. Hornets | Mar 05 | $86 | +$14 | +16% |
| Wizards vs. Magic | Mar 05 | $90 | +$10 | +11% |
| Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves | Mar 05 | $86 | +$14 | +16% |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | Mar 05 | $150 | $0 | +0% |
| Rockets vs. Wizards | Mar 03 | $86 | +$10 | +12% |
| Kings vs. Lakers | Mar 02 | $85 | +$15 | +18% |
| Cavaliers vs. Nets | Mar 02 | $158 | +$42 | +27% |
| Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? | Mar 02 | $1,870 | +$530 | +28% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? | Mar 01 | $310 | −$310 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Supreme Court" during the 2026 State of the Union addr | Feb 26 | $158 | +$42 | +27% |
| Will Trump say "Fentanyl" or "Cocaine" during the 2026 State of the Un | Feb 25 | $166 | +$34 | +20% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? | Feb 25 | $54 | −$54 | -100% |
| Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly | Feb 25 | $713 | −$713 | -100% |
| Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Feb 25 | $1,206 | −$1,206 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Pistons | Feb 24 | $225 | +$274 | +122% |
| Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by December 31? | Feb 23 | $252 | +$28 | +11% |
| Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Feb 23 | $710 | +$290 | +41% |
| Women's Final - USA vs. Canada | Feb 20 | $934 | +$266 | +28% |
| Will Drake perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Feb 11 | $942 | +$58 | +6% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February? | Feb 04 | $680 | +$769 | +113% |
| Will XRP dip to $1.40 in February? | Feb 04 | $250 | +$45 | +18% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in February? | Feb 04 | $180 | +$170 | +94% |