Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:55:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
78 0x78eb…9a2b sports 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$58 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$58
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate75%38W / 13L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$258now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$160
14 days+$160
30 days+$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% +$124
other 31% −$1,326
world 17% +$110
crypto 17% +$1,090
politics 2% +$76
economics 1% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)+7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +66.7% +50.8% 100% 100% +50.8%
≤30d 1 +66.7% +50.8% 100% 100% +50.8%
≤90d 1 +66.7% +50.8% 100% 100% +50.8%
all 51 +18.8% +7.5% 75% 73% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.5% 73% -9.1%
10% -2.8% 27% -17.8%
15% -12.2% 16% -25.8%
20% -20.8% 14% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +67% too few recent
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$334 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$258
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses38 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage175d
Avg bet$256
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 82¢ $100 $159 +$59 (+59%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $240 +$160 +67%
Magic vs. Lakers Mar 19 $299 −$299 -100%
Will Powell say "Affordability" during March press conference? Mar 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during March press conference? Mar 19 $60 −$60 -100%
Kings vs. Clippers Mar 19 $88 −$88 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 19 $420 −$420 -100%
Nets vs. Pistons Mar 19 $89 −$89 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Pacers Mar 19 $86 +$14 +16%
Will Powell say "Successor" during March press conference? Mar 19 $11 +$89 +809%
Jazz vs. Timberwolves Mar 19 $87 +$13 +15%
Will Powell say "Speculate" or "Speculation" during March press confer Mar 19 $49 +$51 +104%
Cavaliers vs. Mavericks Mar 14 $85 +$15 +18%
Knicks vs. Pacers Mar 14 $86 +$14 +16%
Bulls vs. Clippers Mar 14 $84 +$16 +19%
Jazz vs. Trail Blazers Mar 14 $89 +$11 +13%
Mavericks vs. Magic Mar 14 $370 −$290 -78%
Mavericks vs. Hawks Mar 14 $80 +$20 +25%
Knicks vs. Jazz Mar 14 $90 +$10 +11%
Wizards vs. Magic Mar 14 $90 +$10 +11%
Pistons vs. Nets Mar 14 $90 +$10 +11%
Bulls vs. Lakers Mar 14 $83 +$17 +21%
Mavericks vs. Raptors Mar 14 $80 +$20 +25%
Nets vs. Heat Mar 14 $87 +$13 +15%
Wizards vs. Heat Mar 14 $90 +$10 +11%
Mavericks vs. Celtics Mar 14 $86 +$14 +16%
Pacers vs. Lakers Mar 14 $85 +$15 +18%
Pacers vs. Clippers Mar 06 $179 +$21 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 05 $445 −$445 -100%
Mavericks vs. Hornets Mar 05 $86 +$14 +16%
Wizards vs. Magic Mar 05 $90 +$10 +11%
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Mar 05 $86 +$14 +16%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Mar 05 $150 $0 +0%
Rockets vs. Wizards Mar 03 $86 +$10 +12%
Kings vs. Lakers Mar 02 $85 +$15 +18%
Cavaliers vs. Nets Mar 02 $158 +$42 +27%
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? Mar 02 $1,870 +$530 +28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 01 $310 −$310 -100%
Will Trump say "Supreme Court" during the 2026 State of the Union addr Feb 26 $158 +$42 +27%
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" or "Cocaine" during the 2026 State of the Un Feb 25 $166 +$34 +20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? Feb 25 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 25 $713 −$713 -100%
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 25 $1,206 −$1,206 -100%
Spurs vs. Pistons Feb 24 $225 +$274 +122%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by December 31? Feb 23 $252 +$28 +11%
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 23 $710 +$290 +41%
Women's Final - USA vs. Canada Feb 20 $934 +$266 +28%
Will Drake perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 11 $942 +$58 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February? Feb 04 $680 +$769 +113%
Will XRP dip to $1.40 in February? Feb 04 $250 +$45 +18%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in February? Feb 04 $180 +$170 +94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 34m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 1h
Jazz vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 87¢ $87 100d
Trail Blazers vs. Pacers BUY Trail Blazers 86¢ $86 100d
Will Powell say "Successor" during March press conference? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 101d
Will Powell say "Speculate" or "Speculation" during March press confer BUY Yes 49¢ $48 101d
Will Powell say "Affordability" during March press conference? BUY Yes 39¢ $30 101d
Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during March press conference? BUY Yes 60¢ $60 101d
Will Powell say "Affordability" during March press conference? BUY Yes 39¢ $9 101d
Will Powell say "Speculate" or "Speculation" during March press confer BUY Yes 49¢ $1 101d
Kings vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 88¢ $88 105d
Jazz vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 89¢ $89 105d
Bulls vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 84¢ $84 106d
Cavaliers vs. Mavericks BUY Cavaliers 85¢ $85 106d
Knicks vs. Pacers BUY Knicks 86¢ $86 106d
Bulls vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 83¢ $83 107d
Wizards vs. Magic BUY Magic 90¢ $90 107d
Knicks vs. Jazz BUY Knicks 90¢ $90 108d
Wizards vs. Heat BUY Heat 90¢ $90 108d
Mavericks vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 80¢ $80 108d
Pistons vs. Nets BUY Pistons 90¢ $90 108d
Mavericks vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 80¢ $80 111d
Nets vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 89¢ $89 112d
Mavericks vs. Magic SELL Magic 15¢ $30 113d
Mavericks vs. Magic BUY Mavericks 86¢ $172 113d
Mavericks vs. Magic BUY Magic 53¢ $24 113d
Mavericks vs. Magic BUY Magic 53¢ $3 113d
Mavericks vs. Magic BUY Magic 85¢ $47 113d
Mavericks vs. Magic BUY Magic 85¢ $38 113d
Mavericks vs. Magic BUY Magic 86¢ $86 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $257.61 · official $257.61 (match) · 219 history records