Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:03:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
78 0x78ea…4b76 crypto 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$115 (+25%) realized +$122 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%6W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$88
other 22% −$3
finance 5% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+37.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +51.9% +37.5% 25% 25% +15.4%
≤30d 24 +51.9% +37.5% 25% 25% +15.4%
≤90d 24 +51.9% +37.5% 25% 25% +15.4%
all 24 +51.9% +37.5% 25% 25% +15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.5% 25% +15.4%
10% +24.3% 25% +4.4%
15% +12.3% 25% -5.7%
20% +1.3% 25% -14.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +129% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$11 · ×4.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized+$122
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses6 / 18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage3d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $22 $18 −$4 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$44 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$19 +1775%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $53 +$44 +84%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $28 +$79 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $33 −$31 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$30 +286%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$64 +413%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $21 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $53 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $21 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $11 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $53 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.28 · official $115.28 (match) · 36 history records