Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:45:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
78 0x78ea…fb28 crypto 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 760d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$366 (+4%) realized +$407 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate41%31W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$239
7 days+$239
14 days+$98
30 days−$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$221
other 5% −$99
sports 1% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +162.5% +137.5% 100% 100% +159.9%
≤30d 19 -4.7% -13.8% 42% 42% -18.4%
≤90d 58 -13.6% -21.8% 31% 31% -17.2%
all 76 -6.7% -15.6% 41% 33% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 33% -8.9%
10% -23.6% 30% -17.6%
15% -31.0% 25% -25.6%
20% -37.8% 16% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$146 vs −$99 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

760d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized+$407
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses31 / 45
Open positions4
Markets (closed)76 / 80
History coverage760d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 21? No 13¢ 5¢ $30 $12 −$18 (-59%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 21? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $30 $6 −$24 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$22 +43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $77 +$217 +282%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $73 −$70 -96%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 8? Jun 07 $73 −$70 -96%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 7? Jun 07 $59 +$86 +145%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 6? Jun 06 $210 −$200 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 4? Jun 04 $73 −$70 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $106 −$93 -87%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $51 +$11 +22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $95 −$48 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $105 +$20 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $105 −$100 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $105 +$169 +160%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $82 −$63 -77%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $106 +$146 +138%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $104 +$43 +42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? May 25 $46 −$44 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $105 −$100 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? May 24 $75 −$19 -26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 22? May 21 $132 −$127 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 21? May 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? May 20 $106 −$100 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 19? May 18 $106 −$100 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 18? May 17 $104 −$100 -96%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 15? May 15 $107 +$125 +117%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 15? May 15 $105 −$100 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 14? May 14 $361 +$806 +224%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 14? May 14 $75 −$71 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 13? May 13 $549 −$398 -72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12? May 12 $211 −$200 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 12? May 12 $299 −$282 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 11? May 10 $104 −$100 -96%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 6? May 06 $317 +$664 +209%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 29? Apr 29 $53 −$50 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $53 −$50 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 28? Apr 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $133 +$33 +25%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 27? Apr 27 $98 +$41 +42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 25? Apr 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 26? Apr 26 $138 +$54 +39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 25? Apr 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 22? Apr 22 $77 +$189 +245%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $69 −$69 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $79 +$142 +180%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 22 $100 −$21 -21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 19? Apr 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $103 −$74 -72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $100 −$23 -23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 19? Apr 19 $100 +$159 +160%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 21? BUY No 13¢ $32 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 7h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 21? BUY Yes 3¢ $32 10h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 11h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 25¢ $77 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 47¢ $73 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 8? BUY Yes 44¢ $73 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 7? SELL Yes 83¢ $146 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 7? BUY Yes 32¢ $59 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 6? BUY Yes 31¢ $210 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 4? BUY Yes 47¢ $73 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? SELL Yes 1¢ $14 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? SELL Yes 47¢ $62 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 3? SELL Yes 11¢ $47 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 20¢ $95 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 7¢ $106 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? SELL No 34¢ $125 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? BUY No 25¢ $105 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 32¢ $105 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? SELL No 62¢ $274 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? BUY No 22¢ $105 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? SELL Yes 2¢ $19 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? SELL No 40¢ $252 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 1? SELL No 63¢ $147 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? BUY No 15¢ $106 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 8¢ $82 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 1? BUY No 42¢ $104 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.53 · official $118.53 (match) · 176 history records