Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:23:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
78 0x78ea…7243 other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate57%27W / 20L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$6
other 31% $0
crypto 7% +$1
politics 6% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +3.4% -6.5% 57% 14% -8.1%
≤30d 17 +3.1% -6.7% 47% 12% -8.7%
≤90d 17 +3.1% -6.7% 47% 12% -8.7%
all 47 +1.2% -8.4% 57% 6% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 6% -8.8%
10% -17.2% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.2% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.92 per $1 lost it wins $6.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses27 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage465d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $87 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $42 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $14 +$3 +22%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $18 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $43 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $43 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $64 +$2 +3%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $41 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $43 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $96 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 +22%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 24 $2 $0 -1%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 35-40% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $14 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June? May 16 $12 $0 +1%
Will Albania be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on May 16? May 15 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $14 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 09 $25 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $1 $0 +7%
Will Jean-Claude Hollerich be the next pope? May 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will Sali Berisha be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 May 07 $13 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 43.0% on May 2? May 05 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Apr 30 $9 $0 -1%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? Apr 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 29 $15 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Mar 30 $2 $0 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 again by March 31? Mar 28 $15 $0 +1%
2025 March hottest on record? Mar 28 $15 $0 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will a #1 seed lose in the first round of NCAA Tournament? Mar 22 $15 $0 +1%
Bank of England rate cut in March meeting? Mar 21 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $14 $0 -1%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $2 −$1 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $46 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 17h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 17h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $4 17h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $46 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $9 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $42 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $17 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 32¢ $14 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $18 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $18 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $43 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $43 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 24¢ $7 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 24¢ $14 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 25¢ $4 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 25¢ $10 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 25¢ $9 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $44 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $41 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 7d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $1 7d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $0 7d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $0 7d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $0 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $41 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.38 · official $46.38 (match) · 145 history records