Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:30:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78e9…79dd sports 61 markets active 1d ago coverage 356d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$256 (-18%) realized −$256 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%32W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days−$121
14 days−$121
30 days−$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$83
other 31% +$79
world 10% −$150
crypto 8% −$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +0.4% -9.2% 53% 53% -17.9%
≤30d 60 +0.4% -9.2% 53% 53% -17.9%
≤90d 60 +0.4% -9.2% 53% 53% -17.9%
all 61 -1.3% -10.7% 52% 52% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 52% -26.4%
10% -19.2% 44% -33.4%
15% -27.0% 38% -39.8%
20% -34.2% 20% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$23 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

356d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$256
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses32 / 29
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 61
History coverage356d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $45 +$21 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $20 −$16 -76%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $117 −$117 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Switzerland to win the second half? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $14 −$5 -35%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $5 +$26 +510%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $3 +$11 +365%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 +$10 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $10 +$3 +26%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +37%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +21%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $10 +$2 +21%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $5 +$3 +63%
Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +234%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$3 +68%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +43%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $76 −$47 -62%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $154 +$20 +13%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $34 +$20 +57%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$17 +109%
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 14 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $95 +$39 +41%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $39 −$28 -72%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $45 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $10 2d
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $5 2d
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $3 2d
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 100¢ $15 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 54¢ $11 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 68¢ $10 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 99¢ $13 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 45¢ $5 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 99¢ $11 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Josh Hokit 99¢ $12 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 88¢ $10 2d
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 99¢ $12 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Mauricio Ruffy 99¢ $12 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $13 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $5 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $11 2d
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 81¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records