Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:34:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78e7…cad8 politics 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate31%12W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% $0
world 30% +$1
other 15% $0
crypto 8% $0
economics 5% $0
culture 5% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.7% -8.9% 33% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 9 -0.9% -10.4% 33% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 9 -0.9% -10.4% 33% 0% -9.2%
all 39 +0.0% -9.5% 31% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 3% -9.4%
10% -18.2% 3% -18.0%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses12 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage274d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $14 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $38 +$4 +10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $42 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $20 −$3 -16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $44 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $3 $0 -3%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $48 $0 -1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Feb 21 $26 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Dec 28 $19 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $1 $0 +24%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Sep 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $20 $0 -0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 29 $49 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Sep 29 $50 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 27 $1 $0 -8%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 24 $2 $0 -14%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 23 $27 $0 +1%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 21 $1 $0 +0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 19 $2 $0 +6%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 18 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $46 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $46 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 20¢ $9 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 20¢ $11 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $11 9h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $8 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $14 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $14 12h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $29 21h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $14 23h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $15 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $9 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 36h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $17 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $1 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $23 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $38 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 91¢ $42 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 91¢ $42 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 21¢ $11 26d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 21¢ $6 26d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 26d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 26d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 89¢ $44 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 89¢ $44 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.32 · official $0.00 (match) · 132 history records