Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:47:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78e5…c577 crypto 789 markets active 0h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$32 (-3%) realized −$33 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%399W / 389L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$41
14 days−$58
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 586 -6.0% -15.0% 52% 51% -13.2%
≤30d 786 -6.8% -15.7% 51% 50% -13.8%
≤90d 786 -6.8% -15.7% 51% 50% -13.8%
all 788 -7.0% -15.9% 51% 50% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 50% -14.1%
10% -23.9% 50% -22.3%
15% -31.3% 50% -29.8%
20% -38.0% 49% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses399 / 389
Open positions1
Markets (closed)788 / 789
History coverage95d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 788 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 62¢ 80¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 326 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.98 · official $3.62 (match) · 1329 history records