Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:48:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

78
0x78e4…4f28
sports · 180 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$949 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$957 · open +$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$163
Realized−$957
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses83 / 94
Est. fees paid−$157
Open positions3
Markets (closed)177 / 180
History coverage77d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 3 History 177 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$245
7 days+$475
14 days+$435
30 days+$339
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Gen.G 80¢ 80¢ $135 $135 +$0 (+0%)
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+43%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+41%)
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner FURIA Esports 70¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Karmine Corp 78¢ 0¢ $240 $0 −$240 (-100%)
Rainbow Six Siege: G2 Esports vs Twisted Minds - Game 1 Winner G2 Esports 75¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner T1 50¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season G2 Esports 48¢ 0¢ $348 $0 −$348 (-100%)
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Movistar KOI 45¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$101 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniil Medvedev Pablo Llamas Ruiz 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Liquid 34¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2 Hanwha Life Esports Challengers 4¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 M80 34¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 FlyQuest 44¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 G2 45¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? No 7¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 4 Winner Karmine Corp 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: Dorado Gaming vs Supernova (BO3) - North American Challengers League Regular Season Dorado Gaming 19¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #1 Group Stage ASTRAL 24¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bulls vs. Knicks Bulls 0¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 Under 39¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
LoL: Dorado Gaming vs Supernova - Game 2 Winner Dorado Gaming 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Valorant: Sentinels vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Stage 1 Sentinels 81¢ 0¢ $89 $0 −$89 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 12 $74 +$62 +84%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 12 $32 +$42 +133%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $23 +$9 +38%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $21 +$2 +8%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $245 −$214 -87%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $180 +$62 +34%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $17 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $146 +$52 +36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $116 +$30 +26%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $56 +$60 +107%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $98 −$97 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $59 +$52 +88%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $90 −$86 -96%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $140 +$48 +34%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $11 −$11 -97%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $359 +$122 +34%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $152 +$69 +46%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $175 −$171 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $131 +$44 +33%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $273 +$157 +58%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $183 +$90 +49%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $76 +$38 +51%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $229 +$75 +33%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $57 −$56 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $100 −$99 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 +$78 +383%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $81 +$57 +70%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $171 +$101 +59%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $51 +$66 +130%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $51 +$77 +152%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $51 +$41 +81%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $144 +$67 +46%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $102 +$42 +41%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $69 +$33 +48%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $71 −$70 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $22 −$22 -98%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $139 +$24 +17%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $119 +$20 +17%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $100 +$19 +19%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $33 −$32 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 01 $11 +$1 +10%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $117 +$45 +38%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 01 $50 +$8 +16%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $41 +$18 +43%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $30 +$11 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 99% −$913
crypto 0% −$5
politics 0% −$30
other 0% +$1
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 80¢ $136 1h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le SELL FaZe Vegas 99¢ $136 1h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY FaZe Vegas 53¢ $74 3h
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League SELL G2 Minnesota 99¢ $73 3h
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY G2 Minnesota 42¢ $32 4h
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner SELL Karmine Corp Blue 99¢ $32 4h
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 71¢ $23 5h
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner SELL Karmine Corp Blue 82¢ $23 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 40¢ $56 5h
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 75¢ $21 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 33¢ $7 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 13¢ $28 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 81¢ $182 6h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 99¢ $242 6h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 73¢ $180 6h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 23¢ $17 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $198 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 73¢ $146 8h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $146 8h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 79¢ $116 8h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $116 8h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 47¢ $56 11h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 52¢ $98 12h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $102 13h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $110 13h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 52¢ $59 14h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $51 24h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 50¢ $102 24h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 21¢ $2 29h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 38¢ $90 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +18.5% +7.2% 68% 66% +4.9%
≤30d 87 +3.8% -6.1% 61% 59% -2.5%
≤90d 177 -13.1% -21.4% 47% 45% -15.6%
all 177 -13.1% -21.4% 47% 45% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 45% -15.6%
10% -28.9% 41% -23.7%
15% -35.8% 33% -31.0%
20% -42.1% 23% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.28 · official $163.28 (match) · 457 history records