Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:59:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

78
0x78e1…2f80
crypto · 210 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$721 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$721 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$721
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses65 / 143
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)208 / 210
History coverage55d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 2 History 208 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$151
7 days−$162
14 days−$162
30 days−$600
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? No 39¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? No 42¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? No 41¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$13 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $24 −$8 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $24 +$30 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$15 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $22 −$9 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$12 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$6 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$11 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$33 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$12 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$25 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$12 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$41 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$6 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$10 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$12 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$41 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$9 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$6 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $22 +$56 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$32 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $23 +$41 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$15 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$24 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 90% −$440
weather 6% −$119
other 3% −$161
world 0% +$3
tech 0% −$1
politics 0% −$3
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $52 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $18 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $13 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $16 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $24 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $54 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $24 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $11 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $11 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $22 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $23 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 -22.3% -29.7% 29% 28% -14.2%
≤30d 155 -20.4% -28.0% 32% 31% -22.0%
≤90d 208 -24.9% -32.0% 31% 30% -22.5%
all 208 -24.9% -32.0% 31% 30% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.0% 30% -22.5%
10% -38.5% 27% -30.0%
15% -44.5% 25% -36.7%
20% -49.9% 23% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.84 · official $3.84 (match) · 516 history records