Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:54:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

78 0x78e1…7337 sports 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d

BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$433 (+1%) realized +$188 · open +$245

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR46%break-even

Win rate75%18W / 6L

Drawdown91%max

Avg bet$1,128per market

Trades / day51.6pace

Fees−$10est.

Kalshi-fit64%portable

Net worth$30,393now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +46%

net ROI/market (all)-5.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	24	+5.0%	-5.0%	75%	46%	-8.1%
≤30d	24	+5.0%	-5.0%	75%	46%	-8.1%
≤90d	24	+5.0%	-5.0%	75%	46%	-8.1%
all	24	+5.0%	-5.0%	75%	46%	-8.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover51.6 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-5.0%	46%	-8.1%
10% ← realistic here	-14.1%	29%	-16.9%
15%	-22.4%	17%	-24.9%
20%	-30.0%	12%	-32.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

39% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +6% → late +4% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$16 vs −$30 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$30,393

Realized+$188

Unrealized+$245

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses18 / 6

Est. fees paid−$10

Open positions9

Markets (closed)24 / 33

History coverage4d

Avg bet$1,128

Trades / day51.6

Drawdown91%

Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 9 History 24 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	18¢	$7,288	$7,749	+$461 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	15¢	14¢	$6,359	$5,733	−$626 (-10%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	13¢	$4,436	$5,313	+$877 (+20%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	12¢	$3,492	$4,230	+$738 (+21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	7¢	$3,888	$2,646	−$1,242 (-32%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	7¢	7¢	$2,411	$2,394	−$17 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$2,052	$2,106	+$54 (+3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	89¢	88¢	$178	$177	−$1 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5	Under	89¢	90¢	$44	$45	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5	Jun 19	$40	+$10	+24%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5	Jun 19	$93	−$4	-4%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5	Jun 19	$95	+$5	+5%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5	Jun 18	$48	+$41	+85%
Spread: Canada (-2.5)	Jun 18	$48	+$43	+90%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$100	+$4	+4%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5	Jun 18	$76	+$15	+20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$86	+$14	+16%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5	Jun 18	$100	+$6	+6%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5	Jun 18	$91	−$91	-100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5	Jun 18	$48	+$2	+4%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$46	+$4	+9%
Spread: Czechia (-3.5)	Jun 18	$97	+$3	+4%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$50	+$22	+43%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$118	+$32	+27%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	Jun 18	$28	+$22	+75%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5	Jun 18	$101	+$26	+26%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$55	−$54	-99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	Jun 18	$128	−$26	-21%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$41	+$9	+22%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5	Jun 18	$9	−$2	-27%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$4,975	+$25	+0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Jun 15	$5	+$1	+16%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	89¢	$44	3m
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5	SELL Over	89¢	$89	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$89	2h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5	BUY Over	37¢	$0	2h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5	BUY Over	37¢	$9	2h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5	BUY Over	37¢	$20	2h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5	BUY Over	37¢	$7	2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$89	2h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5	BUY Over	56¢	$43	2h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5	BUY Over	56¢	$11	2h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5	BUY Over	56¢	$1	2h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5	BUY Over	55¢	$0	2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	81¢	$40	2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5	BUY Under	7¢	$5	3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	89¢	$89	23h
Spread: Canada (-2.5)	SELL Canada	91¢	$0	23h
Spread: Canada (-2.5)	SELL Canada	91¢	$3	23h
Spread: Canada (-2.5)	SELL Canada	91¢	$21	23h
Spread: Canada (-2.5)	SELL Canada	91¢	$12	23h
Spread: Canada (-2.5)	SELL Canada	91¢	$56	23h
Spread: Canada (-2.5)	BUY Canada	48¢	$48	23h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	48¢	$30	23h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	48¢	$18	23h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	95¢	$95	24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	91¢	$91	25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5	SELL Over	79¢	$64	25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5	BUY Over	51¢	$26	25h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	86¢	$86	26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5	BUY Under	96¢	$100	26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5	BUY Over	87¢	$50	26h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30,392.74 · official $30,392.74 (match) · 258 history records