Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:21:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.0
score
78 0x78e1…e49a other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,116 (+96%) realized +$2,318 · open −$202
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +120% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +91% what you keep after slip
Net edge+91%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%12W / 8L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$1,122
sports 47% +$772
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+99.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +120.1% +99.1% 60% 60% +88.9%
≤30d 20 +120.1% +99.1% 60% 60% +88.9%
≤90d 20 +120.1% +99.1% 60% 60% +88.9%
all 20 +120.1% +99.1% 60% 60% +88.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +99.1% 60% +88.9%
10% +80.1% 60% +70.8%
15% +62.7% 60% +54.3%
20% +46.7% 55% +39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +109% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +120% · $-wt +109% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +99% → late +141% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$226 vs −$76 · ×2.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.43 per $1 lost it wins $4.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$2,318
Unrealized−$202
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses12 / 8
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions4
Markets (closed)20 / 24
History coverage3d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 24¢ $100 $47 −$53 (-53%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $252 +$115 +46%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $103 +$806 +785%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $102 +$121 +119%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$103 +101%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $113 +$411 +365%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$26 +52%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $147 +$95 +65%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $154 −$150 -97%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$80 +79%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $42 +$472 +1121%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$282 +276%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 +$121 +119%
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Jun 15 $114 −$111 -97%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $101 +$74 +73%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $154 19h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $51 20h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $102 20h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 20h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 21¢ $113 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $252 20h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $147 20h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $51 21h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 21h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 21h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $42 22h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $102 22h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 26¢ $102 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 22h
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 1¢ $51 2d
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 3¢ $63 2d
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 9¢ $103 2d
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 0¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.66 · official $47.66 (match) · 37 history records