Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:12:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78de…86be sports 167 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$217 (-6%) realized −$217 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate50%82W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$353
7 days−$353
14 days−$353
30 days−$266
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$125
sports 36% −$93
politics 15% −$65
world 5% −$5
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -65.5% -68.8% 2% 2% -23.7%
≤30d 65 -33.3% -39.6% 32% 31% -19.0%
≤90d 165 -13.6% -21.8% 50% 26% -17.4%
all 165 -13.6% -21.8% 50% 26% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 26% -17.4%
10% -29.3% 20% -25.3%
15% -36.1% 12% -32.5%
20% -42.4% 5% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$217
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses82 / 83
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)165 / 167
History coverage61d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? No 57¢ 52¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 54¢ 48¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Jun 28 $702 −$41 -6%
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $80 −$10 -12%
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Jun 28 $24 −$2 -9%
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 28 $162 −$18 -11%
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 28 $259 −$42 -16%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 28 $54 −$5 -9%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? Jun 27 $504 −$65 -13%
Will GamerLegion make a roster change before August? Jun 27 $98 −$6 -6%
Will Bryce Dettloff win Love Island USA Season 8? Jun 27 $79 −$7 -9%
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 27 $39 −$2 -4%
Set 1 Winner: Buse vs Paul Jun 27 $2 $0 -27%
ITF Gaborone: Alec Beckley vs Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine Jun 27 $2 −$1 -56%
Nara Club vs. Kataller Toyama: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $2 $0 -15%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Toyama: Hiromi Abe vs Sae Noguchi Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-2.5) Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Kia Tigers Jun 27 $65 +$21 +33%
ITF Gimcheon: Sanhui Shin vs Yunseok Jang Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Nicolas Kicker Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
ITF Hurghada: Samir Hamza Reguig vs Markus Molder Jun 27 $3 −$1 -47%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Tommy Paul Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
ITF Portoroz: Julie Struplova vs Ipek Oz Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Deauville: Raphael Perot vs Felix Balshaw Jun 27 $7 −$1 -14%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Anhelina Kalinina vs Petra Marcinko Jun 27 $4 −$1 -29%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Shanghai Haigang FC (-2.5) Jun 27 $24 −$24 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Alan Magadan Jun 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Thespa Gunma vs. SC Sagamihara: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Kalinina vs Marcinko Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Mboko vs Navarro Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Nedic vs. Sanchis: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. San Die Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Nedic vs. Sanchis: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 13 $8 +$2 +20%
ITF Zagreb: Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Anna-Lena Friedsam Jun 13 $5 +$2 +46%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $4 +$2 +44%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 13 $6 +$1 +20%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $3 +$2 +48%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Mikhail Kukushkin Jun 13 $10 +$3 +31%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $3 +$2 +48%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Oleksii Krutykh vs Denis Petak Jun 13 $10 +$4 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? SELL Yes 53¢ $27 9m
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? BUY Yes 57¢ $28 10m
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? SELL No 52¢ $209 32m
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? BUY No 54¢ $189 33m
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? BUY No 52¢ $26 33m
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? SELL No 53¢ $26 34m
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? BUY No 53¢ $26 34m
Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? SELL No 40¢ $15 1h
Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? SELL No 40¢ $51 1h
Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? BUY No 59¢ $58 1h
Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? BUY No 58¢ $12 1h
Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? BUY No 54¢ $16 1h
Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? BUY No 53¢ $11 1h
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 56¢ $6 1h
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 56¢ $15 1h
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 57¢ $17 1h
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 62¢ $42 1h
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? SELL No 35¢ $20 2h
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? SELL No 37¢ $2 2h
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? BUY No 38¢ $24 2h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 56¢ $55 3h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 56¢ $86 3h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 57¢ $3 3h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 64¢ $57 3h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 61¢ $3 3h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 63¢ $43 3h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 59¢ $59 3h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 52¢ $33 3h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $35 3h
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 25¢ $0 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.00 (match) · 581 history records