Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:37:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78dc…586e world 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate41%31W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$4
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$1
other 18% +$1
politics 16% $0
sports 13% −$13
economics 4% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.7% -8.9% 57% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 24 +1.0% -8.6% 46% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 75 -1.1% -10.5% 41% 1% -9.5%
all 76 -2.4% -11.7% 41% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 1% -9.9%
10% -20.1% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses31 / 45
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 77
History coverage492d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 95¢ 91¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $31 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $89 −$1 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $15 $0 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $30 +$2 +5%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $9 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $18 +$2 +10%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $53 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $15 +$1 +8%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 +9%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $60 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $134 −$5 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $58 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 31 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $66 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $46 −$2 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $93 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $29 +$3 +11%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $32 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $28 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $3 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $26 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $26 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $25 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $57 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $11 $0 -1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $84 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $56 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $30 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $34 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $31 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $31 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $6 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $25 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $32 34h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $28 36h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $4 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $32 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $32 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $35 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $35 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $32 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 61¢ $30 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $19 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.38 · official $0.00 (match) · 285 history records