Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:33:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
78 0x78da…c21f other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL −$103 (-5%) realized −$103 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +444% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +319% what you keep after slip
Net edge+319%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$489per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$108
sports 35% −$173
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+392.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +444.0% +392.2% 25% 25% -63.8%
≤30d 4 +444.0% +392.2% 25% 25% -63.8%
≤90d 4 +444.0% +392.2% 25% 25% -63.8%
all 4 +444.0% +392.2% 25% 25% -63.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +392.2% 25% -63.8%
10% ← realistic here +345.1% 25% -67.2%
15% +302.1% 25% -70.4%
20% +262.7% 25% -73.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +444% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$132 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$489
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $590 +$116 +20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $349 −$146 -42%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $325 −$78 -24%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $692 −$173 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 58¢ $143 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 34¢ $59 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 33¢ $24 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 71¢ $63 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 81¢ $201 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 15¢ $32 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 15¢ $0 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 15¢ $17 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 97¢ $7 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 97¢ $31 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 97¢ $3 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 97¢ $242 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $32 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 64¢ $146 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 64¢ $41 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 66¢ $2 6h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 66¢ $18 6h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL No 95¢ $14 9h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL No 95¢ $71 9h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL No 94¢ $80 9h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL No 94¢ $154 9h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL No 86¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.38 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records