Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:01:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78d7…1273 other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 335d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$122 (-8%) realized −$123 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate35%9W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$102
sports 23% +$74
crypto 17% −$24
economics 4% −$13
world 3% −$47
tech 1% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -3.3% -12.6% 20% 20% -10.9%
≤30d 8 -16.1% -24.1% 25% 25% -30.0%
≤90d 18 +1.0% -8.6% 44% 39% -10.4%
all 26 -26.1% -33.1% 35% 27% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.1% 27% -18.6%
10% -39.5% 27% -26.3%
15% -45.3% 27% -33.5%
20% -50.7% 23% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -58% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$36 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

335d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$123
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses9 / 17
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage335d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $43 $44 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $44 +$170 +383%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 30 $46 −$44 -97%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $24 +$21 +88%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 25 $89 −$87 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $224 +$84 +38%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 14 $205 +$20 +10%
Will Xander Schauffele finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 Augusta Nation Apr 13 $40 +$56 +140%
Will Scottie Scheffler finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 Augusta Nationa Apr 13 $50 +$59 +119%
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Ludvig Aberg finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Augusta National In Apr 07 $80 −$79 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $40 +$53 +134%
Sweden vs. Poland: Both Teams to Score Mar 31 $19 +$21 +108%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in July? Mar 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $47 −$47 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Jul 31 $45 +$2 +4%
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? Jul 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in July? Jul 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in July? Jul 24 $15 −$15 -100%
30% EU tariff in effect by August 1? Jul 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be greater than 2%? Jul 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $44 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $13 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? A BUY 44¢ $113 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $214 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 20¢ $44 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $46 20d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $46 20d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $24 20d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 20d
Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $89 55d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 72¢ $224 66d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? BUY Yes 91¢ $205 67d
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $47 73d
Will Ludvig Aberg finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Augusta National In BUY Yes 60¢ $80 73d
Will Xander Schauffele finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 Augusta Nation BUY Yes 41¢ $40 73d
Will Scottie Scheffler finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 Augusta Nationa BUY Yes 45¢ $50 73d
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31? SELL Yes 100¢ $93 80d
Sweden vs. Poland: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $40 80d
Sweden vs. Poland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $19 80d
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 42¢ $40 80d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No $47 111d
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $17 327d
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in July? BUY Yes 38¢ $7 331d
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in July? BUY No 67¢ $15 331d
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in July? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 331d
30% EU tariff in effect by August 1? BUY Yes 21¢ $18 331d
Will Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2025? BUY Yes $2 335d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.41 · official $44.41 (match) · 38 history records