Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:38:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78d7…fc01 crypto 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$78 (+5%) realized +$75 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate71%47W / 19L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$15
14 days+$32
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% +$32
politics 17% +$40
world 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
other 0% +$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -10.1% -18.6% 80% 0% -7.0%
≤30d 11 +3.4% -6.5% 91% 27% -6.3%
≤90d 17 -26.0% -33.0% 65% 18% -7.2%
all 66 -13.5% -21.7% 71% 36% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 36% -5.0%
10% -29.2% 20% -14.1%
15% -36.1% 14% -22.4%
20% -42.3% 2% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.99 per $1 lost it wins $2.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$75
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses47 / 19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)66 / 69
History coverage192d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Down 98¢ 100¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Down 95¢ 99¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+5%)
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Down 98¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -60%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $193 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $183 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $181 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $174 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 07 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 04 $1 $0 +43%
Will the South Australian Labor Party win the most seats in the next S Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 27 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 20 $1 −$1 -80%
Will Edouard Philippe be the next mayor of Le Havre? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Franck Allisio win the Marseille mayor election? Mar 16 $1 $0 +44%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 90 Mar 12 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Mar 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 11 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 11 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 11 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 11 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 11 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 11 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 11 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 11 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 11 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 11 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Mar 11 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 11 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 11 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 11 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 11 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Mar 11 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 11 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Mar 11 $11 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Mar 11 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 11 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 11 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 11 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Mar 11 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 50m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 98¢ $193 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? SELL Up 99¢ $194 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 93¢ $183 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 95¢ $181 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 96¢ $174 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? SELL Up 100¢ $105 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 95¢ $100 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? BUY Up 97¢ $50 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? BUY Up 82¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? BUY Down 88¢ $10 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $1 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 88d
Will Edouard Philippe be the next mayor of Le Havre? BUY No 2¢ $1 88d
Will the South Australian Labor Party win the most seats in the next S BUY No 1¢ $5 88d
Will Franck Allisio win the Marseille mayor election? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 92d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? SELL No 98¢ $10 94d
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 90 SELL No 79¢ $10 96d
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 90 BUY No 80¢ $10 96d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY No 96¢ $10 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.74 · official $102.74 (match) · 148 history records