Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:26:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

78 0x78d4…6537 crypto 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 46d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip

Net edge-67%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate38%8W / 13L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$805per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Kalshi-fit96%portable

Net worth$2,044now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$8

7 days+$8

14 days−$5

30 days−$2

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-65.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+0.2%	-9.4%	100%	0%	-9.4%
≤30d	15	-46.6%	-51.7%	53%	0%	-9.5%
≤90d	21	-61.8%	-65.5%	38%	0%	-9.7%
all	21	-61.8%	-65.5%	38%	0%	-9.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-65.5%	0%	-9.7%
10%	-68.8%	0%	-18.3%
15%	-71.8%	0%	-26.2%
20%	-74.6%	0%	-33.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -62% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,050) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -80% → late -45% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.53 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage

Net worth$2,044

Realized−$28

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses8 / 13

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Open positions2

Markets (closed)21 / 23

History coverage46d

Avg bet$805

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 29?	No	100¢	100¢	$2,036	$2,039	+$3 (+0%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	95¢	97¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 28?	Jun 29	$2,033	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 28?	Jun 28	$2,029	+$4	+0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20?	Jun 21	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 17?	Jun 18	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16?	Jun 17	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 13?	Jun 14	$8	−$8	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 11?	Jun 12	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 9?	Jun 10	$2,069	+$4	+0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 9?	Jun 09	$2,066	+$4	+0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 8?	Jun 09	$2,061	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8?	Jun 08	$2,058	+$4	+0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 7?	Jun 08	$2,054	+$4	+0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 7?	Jun 07	$2,050	+$4	+0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 5?	Jun 06	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 3?	Jun 04	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 29?	May 30	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 28?	May 28	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 25?	May 26	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 20?	May 21	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 16?	May 17	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 14?	May 14	$4	−$4	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 29?	BUY No	100¢	$2,036	1h
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 28?	BUY No	100¢	$2,033	11h
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 28?	BUY No	100¢	$2,029	24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	8d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 17?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	11d
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	12d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 13?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	15d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 13?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	15d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 13?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	15d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 11?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	17d
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	BUY No	95¢	$5	18d
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 9?	BUY No	100¢	$2,069	19d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 9?	BUY Yes	100¢	$2,066	20d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 8?	BUY No	100¢	$2,061	20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8?	BUY Yes	100¢	$2,058	21d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 7?	BUY No	100¢	$2,054	21d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 7?	BUY Yes	100¢	$2,050	22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 5?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	23d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 3?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 29?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	30d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 28?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	32d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 25?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	34d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 20?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	39d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 16?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	43d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 14?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	46d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,043.91 · official $2,043.91 (match) · 33 history records