Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:54:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

78
0x78d3…9e86
crypto · 14 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$67 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$67 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$0
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses9 / 5
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage30d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 14 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$173
7 days−$173
14 days−$173
30 days−$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Down 70¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Spirit 50¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026? Yes $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 48¢ $152 $0 −$152 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Up 33¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $33 −$32 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$10 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $24 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $33 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$5 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$4 +41%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $154 −$152 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $202 +$101 +50%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner May 13 $101 +$27 +27%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 13 $68 +$6 +10%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their n May 13 $30 −$29 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 73% −$30
crypto 22% −$8
politics 4% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -23.0% -30.3% 60% 50% -57.3%
≤30d 10 -23.0% -30.3% 60% 50% -57.3%
≤90d 14 -17.4% -25.3% 64% 50% -17.9%
all 14 -17.4% -25.3% 64% 50% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 50% -17.9%
10% -32.4% 36% -25.8%
15% -38.9% 29% -32.9%
20% -44.9% 0% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 58 history records