Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:28:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
78 0x78d2…b978 other 110 markets active 0h ago coverage 681d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
Total PnL −$143 (-3%) realized −$92 · open −$156
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate21%20W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$275now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$450
7 days+$593
14 days+$593
30 days+$593
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$640
sports 28% +$1,067
world 9% −$295
politics 5% −$185
crypto 5% −$195
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +88.4% +70.5% 22% 22% +69.6%
≤30d 18 +88.4% +70.5% 22% 22% +69.6%
≤90d 18 +88.4% +70.5% 22% 22% +69.6%
all 96 -21.0% -28.6% 21% 20% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 20% -13.9%
10% -35.4% 20% -22.1%
15% -41.6% 20% -29.6%
20% -47.4% 19% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +108% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$139 vs −$38 · ×3.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

681d coverage
Net worth$275
Realized−$92
Unrealized−$156
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses20 / 76
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions13
Markets (closed)96 / 110
History coverage681d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $141 $137 −$4 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+28%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-25%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$7 (-75%)
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? No 3¢ 0¢ $48 $2 −$46 (-95%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Over 12¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? No 9¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-99%)
Ecuador leading at halftime? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Will Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $78 $0 −$78 (-100%)
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Morocco leading at halftime? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Cole Palmer win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Desire Doue win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid vs. Villarreal end in a draw? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $155 $0 −$155 (-100%)
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-01? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $132 $0 −$132 (-100%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-05? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-27? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $72 +$317 +442%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $37 −$36 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $72 +$106 +148%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $19 −$18 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $80 −$78 -98%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $24 −$23 -98%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$320 +3107%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $49 +$196 +402%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? Nov 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2025-10-27? Oct 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-19? Oct 19 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-10-05? Oct 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-05? Oct 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-05? Oct 05 $162 −$162 -100%
Will Real Madrid vs. Villarreal end in a draw? Oct 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Verona vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? Oct 03 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-01? Oct 01 $132 −$132 -100%
Will AC Milan vs. Napoli end in a draw? Sep 28 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Napoli win on 2025-09-28? Sep 28 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad end in a draw? Sep 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-28? Sep 28 $100 +$339 +339%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-09-28? Sep 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Tottenham vs. Wolves end in a draw? Sep 27 $70 +$291 +414%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-27? Sep 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-09-27? Sep 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Crystal Palace vs. Liverpool end in a draw? Sep 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-27? Sep 27 $55 +$301 +542%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-27? Sep 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Erling Haaland win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Jose Vinicius Junior win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Desire Doue win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Cole Palmer win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 22 $155 −$155 -100%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-09-21? Sep 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 3m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 12¢ $51 29m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 9¢ $25 31m
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 1h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 13¢ $18 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $388 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $37 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $72 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $41 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $16 12h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 12¢ $15 22h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 22h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 22h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 31¢ $56 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 15¢ $17 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 33¢ $62 25h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 16¢ $24 26h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 27h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 38¢ $85 28h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $330 28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 3¢ $26 28h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 28h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 28h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $18 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $274.90 · official $276.77 (match) · 214 history records