Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:40:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78d0…6110 other 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$174 (-6%) realized −$262 · open +$88
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate31%16W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$119
7 days−$176
14 days−$176
30 days−$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$253
sports 24% +$356
world 7% −$183
crypto 3% −$29
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -11.0% -19.5% 30% 30% -16.1%
≤30d 43 -23.4% -30.7% 26% 26% -16.7%
≤90d 52 -18.5% -26.2% 31% 27% -16.9%
all 52 -18.5% -26.2% 31% 27% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 27% -16.9%
10% -33.3% 27% -24.8%
15% -39.7% 23% -32.1%
20% -45.7% 23% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$34 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$288
Realized−$262
Unrealized+$88
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses16 / 36
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage58d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 84¢ $200 $288 +$88 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $44 −$43 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $61 +$239 +388%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $253 −$250 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -11%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will France be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Finland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $183 −$183 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$36 +234%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $22 +$6 +26%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$46 +226%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $112 +$110 +99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $201 −$105 -53%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 +$182 +90%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $17 −$2 -9%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$15 +246%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $53 +$205 +385%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $218 −$179 -82%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 +$29 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $39 +$11 +28%
Will Albania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Serbia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 20 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 20 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 20 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 20 $5 +$12 +236%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $61 22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $299 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 25h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 25h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $72 25h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 27h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 27h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 20¢ $46 27h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 28h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 29h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 29h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 20¢ $61 47h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $183 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $22 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $222 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $287.93 · official $287.93 (match) · 124 history records