Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:38:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
78 0x78d0…42f3 other 120 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%9W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$11
politics 36% −$11
sports 11% +$33
economics 4% −$1
world 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 87 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 120 +2.8% -7.0% 8% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 6% -9.5%
10% -15.9% 6% -18.2%
15% -24.0% 6% -26.1%
20% -31.4% 6% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×13.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)120 / 120
History coverage134d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 120 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $21 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $174 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $173 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $158 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $163 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $179 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $284 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $203 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $145 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $662 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $183 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $351 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $190 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $138 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 16 $150 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 15 $395 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $165 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $184 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $186 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $194 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $390 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $179 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $146 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $203 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $202 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $169 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $146 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $198 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $159 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $173 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $158 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $145 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $172 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? Apr 15 $194 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 15 $579 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $389 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $328 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $175 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $158 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $165 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $158 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $197 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $183 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $201 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $170 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 11 $194 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 2d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 2d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 17d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $174 26d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $174 26d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $173 26d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $173 27d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $158 27d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $158 27d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $163 28d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $163 29d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $179 29d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $179 30d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $193 30d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $193 31d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $137 32d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $137 32d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $203 33d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $203 34d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $145 34d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $145 34d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $142 34d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $142 35d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $183 36d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $183 36d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $149 36d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $149 36d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $189 37d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $190 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 359 history records