Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:19:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
78 0x78cc…a081 sports 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$11,886 (+32%) realized +$11,886 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%17W / 33L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$738per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$634est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,374
7 days−$5,195
14 days+$1,986
30 days+$7,595
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$10,020
other 3% +$503
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -32.6% -39.0% 22% 22% -29.4%
≤30d 43 +4.4% -5.6% 33% 30% +12.8%
≤90d 45 +7.9% -2.4% 36% 33% +17.7%
all 50 +10.7% +0.2% 34% 32% +16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.2% 32% +16.3%
10% -9.4% 30% +5.2%
15% -18.2% 30% -5.0%
20% -26.2% 28% -14.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$1,009) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +60% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,558 vs −$484 · ×3.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11,886
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses17 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$634
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage117d
Avg bet$738
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $752 −$734 -98%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $584 +$2,974 +509%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $482 +$3,133 +650%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Jalen Suggs: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $175 −$175 -100%
Naz Reid: Points O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $243 −$243 -100%
Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 17 $407 −$407 -100%
Naz Reid: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 17 $386 −$386 -100%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-8.5) Jun 17 $618 −$618 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $185 −$185 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov Jun 17 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $1,007 −$1,007 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $1,009 −$1,009 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $442 −$229 -52%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Jun 17 $1,300 −$1,300 -100%
Deni Avdija: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $751 −$751 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,000 +$419 +21%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 17 $817 −$817 -100%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 17 $273 −$273 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $170 −$170 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 17 $308 −$308 -100%
Birmingham: Sho Shimabukuro vs Elias Ymer Jun 17 $209 −$209 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 17 $564 −$564 -100%
Perugia: Liam Broady vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 17 $615 −$615 -100%
Spread: Golden Knights (-2.5) Jun 17 $696 −$696 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar Jun 17 $701 −$701 -100%
1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 17 $1,829 −$1,829 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $845 −$845 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $615 −$600 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs Jun 16 $710 +$587 +83%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,117 +$704 +63%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals v Jun 13 $557 +$447 +80%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $1,020 +$1,962 +192%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,016 +$503 +50%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,294 +$3,988 +308%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $564 +$3,099 +549%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2,004 +$95 +5%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants Jun 04 $1,125 +$897 +80%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $715 +$1,877 +262%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $1,507 +$2,834 +188%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v May 19 $1,008 +$995 +99%
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants Apr 04 $2,521 +$1,731 +69%
Antalya: Julia Riera vs Miriam Bulgaru Feb 23 $931 −$18 -2%
Chile Open: Matias Soto vs Tomas Etcheverry Feb 23 $845 −$17 -2%
Kawhi Leonard: Points O/U 28.5 Feb 23 $130 +$249 +192%
Mexican Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Eliot Spizzirri Feb 23 $612 −$12 -2%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Feb 22 $1 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $752 1h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniel Altmaier 100¢ $3,559 3h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniel Altmaier 16¢ $584 9h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Rinky Hijikata 100¢ $3,616 27h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Rinky Hijikata 13¢ $482 31h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz $103 2d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 16¢ $615 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $2,419 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $88 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 41¢ $916 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 35¢ $996 2d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs BUY Yes 54¢ $710 3d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals $185 3d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Kansas City Royals $213 3d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals $257 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 83¢ $1,734 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 81¢ $1 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 81¢ $4 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 81¢ $45 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 81¢ $17 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 81¢ $19 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 50¢ $1,117 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 21¢ $845 6d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals v BUY Yes 55¢ $557 6d
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw BUY Felix Balshaw 34¢ $1,020 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 72¢ $1,519 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,016 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks $277 8d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 15¢ $564 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 88¢ $1,906 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 117 history records